NBA Best Bet of the Day: Over cashes in Nuggets, Lakers Game 2
The Los Angeles Lakers quieted all that “slow start to playoff series” noise with their 126-114 Game 1 drubbing of the Denver Nuggets. I know I feel stupid about thinking that was a thing.
Now the talk is about when, not if, Los Angeles defeats Denver, but don’t sleep on the Nuggets. They’ve been here before and can even the Western Conference Finals in Game 2, Sunday.
BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all NBA games, so we’re bringing you locks throughout the NBA playoffs.
Nuggets-Lakers OVER 214.5 (-110)
Can the Nuggets win Game 2? Of course. Will they win Game 2? I don’t really know. What I am confident about is these teams combining to OVER 214.5 (-110).
In Game 1, the Lakers cut through the Nuggets’ defense like a knife through warm butter. Probably easier in fact. They scored 33 or more points in each of the first three quarters, leading the game by as many as 27, before taking a nap in the fourth quarter.
They shot 53% from the field and scored 13 points higher than their regular-season average despite LeBron James only scoring 16 points on 11 shots. He did a great job of orchestrating the offense, adding 12 assists. LA hit their season average in threes (11) and free throw shooting (73% in Game 1), which was ranked third-worst this year.
I am not sure how the Nuggets stop the Lakers from scoring. LA is the second-ranked team in offensive efficiency and True Shooting percentage in the playoffs. Denver is 12th out of 16 playoff teams in defensive efficiency plus the ease with which Denver opponents get to the basket is troubling.
The Nuggets have allowed the most dunks (76 dunks allowed, the next closest team is the Houston Rockets with 46) and the most layups in the postseason. This is evident when you look at Anthony Davis’s box score—37 points on 12-of-21 shooting, 12-15 from the free throw line and only three 3-point attempts.
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The Nuggets are due for a bounce-back game, offensively, in Game 2. Denver is the fifth-most efficient offense and has the fifth-highest True Shooting percentage in this postseason. Nikola Jokic had an off game, mostly due to foul trouble, and didn’t shoot a single three.
That cannot happen in Game 2 because Denver has relied on Jokic’s surprise 3-point shooting this postseason. He’s shooting 44% from three in the playoffs while only connecting on 31% in the regular season.
Also see: Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers odds, picks and best bets
Even if Denver can’t get it going, I don’t see them doing much to stop LA’s offense. The previous four Nuggets-Lakers have gone Over the total and the four-point movement isn’t big enough for me to go Under in this one.
TAKE OVER 214.5 in Nuggets-Lakers Game 2. New to sports betting? A $110 bet on the Over 214.5 (-110) pays a $100 profit if LA and Denver combine for 215 or more points.
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