NATO’s Rogue Member Meddles in Another Conflict

pa href=https://www.cato.org/people/ted-galen-carpenter hreflang=undTed Galen Carpenter/a/p

pThis week, a href=https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/27/europe/armenia-azerbaijan-tensions-nagorno-karabakh-intl/index.htmlarmed clashes erupted/a between the forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan, exacerbating already serious tensions in the Caucasus.span /spanThe underlying reason for the latest incident is the long‐​standing struggle between the two countries for control of Ngorno‐​Karabakh.span /spanThat ethnically Armenian region is legally part of Azerbaijan, but Armenia assumes responsibility for a href=https://news.antiwar.com/2020/09/27/armenia-azerbaijan-near-war-over-nagorno-karabakh/guaranteeing/a the minority enclave’s self‐​declared political independence. The inherently unstable arrangement has led to several previous outbreaks of violence over the past three decades, but the latest incident seems especially serious.span /spanBoth countries have a href=https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/armenia-and-azerbaijan-inch-closer-to-war-as-both-sides-declare-martial-law-deadly-clashes/ar-BB19sXrVdeclared martial law and commenced full military mobilization/a.span /span“We are anbsp;step away from anbsp;large‐​scale war,” a href=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/9/28/why-you-should-care-about-conflict-between-armenia-and-azerbaijanwarns/a Olesya Vartanyan of the International Crisis Group, an NGO focused on preventing and resolving deadly conflicts./p
pThe default assumption of most Americans might be that this obscure dispute is anbsp;parochial spat that has little or no relevance to the interests of the United States, and normally that would be the case.span /spanHowever, fellow NATO member Turkey has injected itself into the conflict, declaring its “a href=https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/721023-turkey-sucomplete support/a” for Azerbaijan and placing total blame on Armenia for the fighting. span /spanArmenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan a href=https://smenews.org/armenian-pm-warns-aggressive-turkey-to-stay-out-of-nagorno-karabakh-conflict-says-hostilities-could-spill-over-regional-borders/spancriticized Turkey for its “aggressive behavior” and demanded that the Turks stay out of the matter./span/a span /spanSince Turkey is anbsp;much larger power than either Armenia or Azerbaijan, its direct involvement would signal anbsp;major expansion of the conflict./p
pAnkara’s declaration especially creates the danger of anbsp;showdown between Turkey and Russia, since Moscow regards Armenia as anbsp;client, if not an outright protectorate.span /spanThe mere possibility of an armed confrontation between anbsp;NATO member and Russia is cause for alarm, since Article 5nbsp;of the North Atlantic Treaty considers an attack on any alliance member as an attack on all.span /spanAnbsp;military incident between Turkey and Russia would require the United States to sort‐​out which party was guilty of aggression, and if it appeared that Moscow had initiated the clash, Washington would have an obligation to come to Turkey’s defense./p
pA responsible member of NATO would be cautious about putting its security partners in such anbsp;position.span /spanBut Turkey, under the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is an increasingly volatile and irresponsible international actor. span /spanThanks to Ankara’s recent behavior in the eastern Mediterranean, NATO’s a href=https://www.cato.org/blog/old-nato-nightmare-returns-possible-war-between-greece-turkeyold nightmare of anbsp;war between Greece and Turkey/a has resurfaced as anbsp;prominent worry for the Alliance.span /spanErdogan’s regime also is engaging in high‐​profile a href=https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31499/turkeys-deepening-intervention-in-the-libyan-civil-war-points-to-erdogans-grand-ambitionsmeddling in Libya’s civil war/a—again adopting anbsp;stance that puts Turkish strategy in direct opposition to the faction that Russia is backing./p
pBoth Ankara and Moscow can be faulted for their conduct in Libya, but Turkey is clearly the more disruptive player in the Caucasus.span /spanThe Kremlin is urging both Armenia and Azerbaijan to de‐​escalate the fighting, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is attempting to a href=https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/armenia-azerbaijan-conflict-nagorno-karabakh/2020/09/27/0d67ef30-00ab-11eb-b92e-029676f9ebec_story.htmlplay the role of mediator/a.span /spanErdogan’s government, on the other hand, appears determined to back Azerbaijan, even if that stance leads to an expanded and more deadly war./p
pThe United States and other leading NATO powers need to send Erdogan anbsp;blunt message that they have no intention of allowing themselves to become entangled in anbsp;conflict with Russia over anbsp;chronic dispute between anbsp;Turkish client state and its long‐​time regional adversary.span /spanThis latest problem also would be anbsp;good occasion to emphasize to Ankara that its disruptive behavior toward Greece, its ill‐​advised meddling in Libya, and now its destabilizing role in the Caucasus is making it difficult—if not impossible—to regard Turkey as anbsp;NATO member in good standing.span /span/p
pAs I’ve a href=https://www.amazon.com/NATO-Dangerous-Ted-Galen-Carpenter/dp/1948647621/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8amp;qid=1601322533amp;sr=1-1written elsewhere/a, the entire rationale for the United States to continue its obligation to defend more than two‐​dozen NATO allies, including strategically irrelevant mini‐​states, makes less and less sense in the twenty‐​first century.span /spanBut being obligated to defend an “ally” that seems determined to create more, rather than less, international turmoil is the essence of folly.span /spanTurkey’s disruptive behavior in the Caucasus is just the latest reason for U.S. leaders to downgrade America’s relationship with that country./p
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