9/29/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. As repression mounts, China under Xi Jinping feels increasingly like North Korea

2. Trump administration orders assessment on bolstering nuclear warheads as talks with Russia stall

3.  Trump nominated for Nobel Peace Prize by Australian law professors for doctrine against endless wars

4. Techie Software Soldier Spy

5. Were they lost students or inept spies for China?

6. The Joint Force – SOF relationship: support roles in the resurgence of great power competition

7. Why special operations? A risk-based theory

8. Xi and Modi: the psychological duel between Asia's strongmen

9. America’s military deserves timely funding from Congress

10. US considers moving base from Turkey to Greece: the Times

11. Cyber warfare: China is helping Pakistani hackers launch cyber attacks on India

12. Zhenhua data leak exposes China's new 'hybrid warfare'

13. Joe Biden nominated for Nobel Peace Prize, joining Trump, Putin

14. Major hospital system hit with cyberattack, potentially largest in U.S. history

15. Washington’s arms control delusions and bluffs

16. Assessing how countries can compete with Chinese hybrid tactics below the threshold of armed conflict

17. Falling into the adaptation gap

18. FBI & CISA issue another warning about 2020 U.S. election disinformation

19. Cyberattack could trigger Article 5 response, NATO deputy secretary warns

20. Marine head warns Americans 'not sensitized' to likely high US casualties of a WWII-like future war

21. Obituary: CSM Parry Leonard Baer

 

1. As repression mounts, China under Xi Jinping feels increasingly like North Korea

Washington Post · Anna Fifield · September 28, 2020

Oh, the irony. For years, everyone (including China) has been calling for North Korea to make Chinese style reforms. In reality China has been adopting North Korean population and resources control measures.

 

2. Trump administration orders assessment on bolstering nuclear warheads as talks with Russia stall

Politico · Daniel Lippman, Bryan Bender, & Lara Seligman · September 28, 2020

Negotiating hardball?

 

3. Trump nominated for Nobel Peace Prize by Australian law professors for doctrine against endless wars

Newsweek · by Matthew Impelli · September 28, 2020

I did not know we had such a doctrine.

 

4. Techie Software Soldier Spy

New York Magazine · by Sharon Weinberger · September 28, 2020

This is quite an expose. As I recall, the DCGS-A versus Palantir debate was that the comparison was apples and oranges and Palantir could not do what DCGS-A was supposed to do. Of course, as it turned out, it seems DCGS-A could not do what it was touted to do either. I also recall that Palantir could have been integrated into DCSGS-A, but the Army supposedly did not want to pay the price of the contract Palantir demanded.

 

5. Were They Lost Students or Inept Spies for China?

Foreign Policy · by Eric Fish · September 28, 2020

I think one of the concepts of the thousand grains of sand is that the grains of sand are not professionally trained. That is supposed to allow them to exploit a "lost student" defense.

 

6. The Joint Force–SOF relationship: support roles in the resurgence of great power competition

Marine Corps Gazette · by LtCol Brandon Turner & Maj Paul Bailey · January, 2020

 

7. Why special operations? A risk-based theory

CNA · by Jonathan Schroden · September, 2020

We have wrestled with this for a long time. The DOD definition is probably the best there is (or is at least sufficient to describe Special Operations).

But the US use of special operations is very broad and, in fact may, be too broad for a single overarching theory. This paper focuses on risk in special operations, which is a useful method and is critically important, but I am not sure if it is sufficient for a special operations theory. As an aside, I consider three areas of risk versus John's two: risk to the mission, risk to the force, and political risk.

My criticism is that this report pays insufficient attention to unconventional warfare, foreign internal defense, psychological operations, and civil affairs (though he correctly notes missions and activities can change over time and are insufficient for establishing an overarching theory).

It uses the standard of the Bin Laden for assessing the theory.

The report analyzes Admiral McRaven's theory of special operations, which he rightly calls a theory of direct action (or, as some would say, the hyper conventional direct action raid), as well as those of Roger Spulak, Harry Yarger,  Richard Rubright, and Thomas Searle (a common theme here is that the Joint Special Operations University is doing some of the leading research and publication on theories of special operations). He does devote nearly three pages to William “Dave” Driver's and Bruce E. DeFeyter's NPS thesis on a theory of unconventional warfare ,which is described as an attempt to mirror Admiral McRaven's theories.

I would have recommended he include Mark Boyatt's work on SF and UW and "through, with, and by."  (of which COL Boyatt is the father). 

My thinking somewhat parallels that of Schroden, though I have not put forth a theory of special operations. The difference between us is that, while he focuses on the hyper conventional direct raid as the foundation for a special operation theory (or at least the standard with which to assess it),  I focus on UW as the foundational aspect of special operations.

My description of special operations includes the two SOF "trinities" and the no fail mission requirement with the foundation for the trinities being "UW thinking."

UW thinking informs everything SF/SOF should do.

UW is fundamentally problem solving; using unique, non-doctrinal and non-conventional methods, techniques, people, equipment to solve (or assist in solving) complex political-military problems.

UW is fundamentally about influencing behavior of target audiences (which can include a population, a segment of the population, a political structure, or a military force); therefore, it includes an integral action arm of IO/PSYOP/CA.

The Two SOF "Trinities":

1. Irregular Warfare

2. Unconventional Warfare

3. Support to Political Warfare

The Comparative advantage of SOF:

1. Governance

2. Influence

3. Support to indigenous forces and populations

With exquisite capabilities for the no fail CT and CP national missions

My recommendation for a follow-on report would be to compare Jonathan's risk construct to selected UW and FID focused operations. I think his risk analysis is an important contribution to thinking about SOF theory.

 

8. Xi and Modi: the psychological duel between Asia's strongmen

World Crunch · by Ajai Shukla · by September 28, 2020

 

9. America’s military deserves timely funding from Congress

Defense News · by Bradley Bowman & Maj. Scott Adamson · September 28, 2020

Another continuing resolution to defend America. I would quibble with the title and say it is America that deserves timely funding of the military from Congress.

 

10. US considers moving base from Turkey to Greece: the Times

AMN · by News Desk · September 29, 2020

Will the Greeks allow nuclear weapons on their soil? This will be quite a move. I have not heard anything about this.

 

11. Cyber warfare: China is helping Pakistani hackers launch cyber attacks on India

News 18 · by Shouvik Das · September 29, 2020

Though not surprising, we should be very concerned with China providing cyber capabilities to hostile countries (and perhaps to non-state actors as well).

 

12. Zhenhua data leak exposes China's new 'hybrid warfare'

DW · by Deutsche Well · September 29, 2020

Another way I think we can describe the security challenge of the 21st century: we face threats from political warfare strategies supported by hybrid military approaches.

 

13. Joe Biden nominated for Nobel Peace Prize, joining Trump, Putin

Newsweek · by Jacob Jarvis · September 29, 2020

What is this? A competition? Trump's three nominations to Biden's one? I am afraid the Nobel Peace Prize may be losing its legitimacy.

 

14. Major hospital system hit with cyberattack, potentially largest in U.S. history

NBC News · by Kevin Collier · September 28, 2020

No attribution but North Korea's past ransomware acts are mentioned in the article.

 

15. Washington’s arms control delusions and bluffs

Defense One · by Steven Pifer · September 28, 2020

The title says it all. A scathing critique of the administration's arms control efforts.

 

16. Assessing how countries can compete with Chinese hybrid tactics below the threshold of armed conflict

Divergent Options · by William Freer · September 28, 2020

Again, the challenge we face in the 21st century: we face threats from political warfare strategies supported by hybrid military approaches.

 

17. Falling into the Adaptation Gap

War On the Rocks · by David Barno and Nora Bensahel · September 29, 2020

 

18. FBI & CISA Issue Another Warning About 2020 U.S. Election Disinformation

Lawfare · by Tia Sewell · September 28, 2020

Here is a link to yesterday's new PSA form the FBI and CISA.

There should be no question how our adversaries are trying to undermine our democratic republic and the legitimacy of our election process. That should unify us but instead it plays right into their hands because we remain divided on this issue.

 

19. Cyberattack could trigger Article 5 response, NATO deputy secretary warns

UPI · by Ed Adamczyk · September 28, 2020

An important question.

 

20. Marine head warns Americans 'not sensitized' to likely high US casualties of a WWII-like future war

American Military News · by Ryan Morgan · September 28, 2020

 

21. Obituary: CSM Parry Leonard Baer

Gettysburg Times · September 28, 2020

The loss of another great American. I was proud to serve with him at USASOC.

 

“Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn't mean politics won't take an interest in you!"

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"Virtue is a state of war, and to live in it we have always to combat with ourselves.”

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"The door for intelligence work opened for me when I undertook my first secret mission while on my honeymoon in Japan in 1919. The United States Government asked me to take a two-month trip to Siberia to report on the anti-Bolshevik movement in the aftermath of the Russian Revolution. Well, it wasn't your usual honeymoon, but Mrs. Donovan was very understanding. The mission was successful and opened doors to many more missions for the government. I was heading down the intelligence path and I was loving it” 

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