Why The Conjuring 3 Won't Be Hurt By Its 2021 HBO Max Release
The makers of many 2021 Warner Bros. movies are upset about their prospects on streaming, but The Conjuring 3 will probably be just fine. To say that the recent announcement of Warner Bros' entire planned 2021 theatrical release slate premiering on HBO Max day and date with theaters caused a stir would be a massive understatement. It's truly unlike any move ever made before by a Hollywood studio, and one that could potentially foreshadow a permanent change in how major film distribution works going forward.
While Warner Bros. says that this is a one time deal, brought about by the unprecedented circumstances of the Coronavirus pandemic, money talks, and if this drives HBO Max subscriptions through the roof, the company might well change its mind. Outside of directors, stars, and the like worried about their financial situations on streaming versus theaters, there's also the danger that already suffering theater chains will continue to hemorrhage money, leading to the movie exhibition business as we know it going under.
On both those fronts, it's possible the release of tentpole blockbusters like The Matrix 4, Godzilla vs. Kong, and Dune might lead to both of the aforementioned negative scenarios, but as for The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, we're not worried. Here's why.
To be clear, we're not saying The Conjuring 3 is better off without a standard theatrical release. During non-plague times, the theatrical profit ceiling would always soundly trounce that of a streaming release, and even the best home theater setup still can't compare to a screen as tall as the room and enormous surround speakers. That said, of WB's 2021 offerings, The Conjuring 3 is one of the most suited to the studio's new strategy. By and large, horror isn't really a genre that requires theater trappings to be effective. In fact, depending on the behavior of one's fellow audience members, horror can be much easier to get into at home by oneself or with a small group.
Additionally, none of The Conjuring movies are big budget affairs. Sure, none of them would be mistaken for an indie movie either, but James Wan's first film cost $20 million, and The Conjuring 2 cost $40 million. That's a drop in the bucket compared to films like Matrix 4 and Godzilla vs. Kong, and while exact budget figures for Conjuring 3 aren't currently available, it's much, much more likely to make a profit without the normal theatrical window than most of its WB brethren. All in all, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It may not break the bank like the first two, but it'll probably be just fine.