12/24/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. New cracks emerge among Democrats over Biden’s Pentagon pick

2. The World China Wants: How Power Will—and Won’t—Reshape Chinese Ambitions

3. Trump vetoes defense bill, but Congress appears poised to override him

4. Miller says last US troops in Afghanistan will be special operations forces

5. Army Rangers have been deployed to combat for 7,000 days straight

6. How to Deter China: Enter the Democratic Armada - 19FortyFive

7. General Washington's Christmas Gifts

8. How the U.S. Misread China’s Xi: Hoping for a Globalist, It Got an Autocrat

9. The Lesson of 2020? Security Doesn’t Mean What You Think It Does

10. Biden Declares Political Center Alive and Well

11. Ideologies, Cults of Personality, and the Center of Gravity

12. The (Coming) Wave of Vaccine Disinformation

13. The Toll Of Conspiracy Theories: A Voting Security Expert Lives In Hiding

14. Snowden and Assange Deserve Pardons. So Do the Whistleblowers Trump Imprisoned.

15. CFIUS Won’t Be ‘Weaponized’ Under the Biden Administration

 

1. New cracks emerge among Democrats over Biden’s Pentagon pick

Politico

As we knew, the choice of General Austin requires the Biden Administration. to expend a lot of political capital.  Will it be worth it?

 

2. The World China Wants: How Power Will—and Won’t—Reshape Chinese Ambitions

Foreign Affairs· by  Rana Mitter ·  January/February 2021

Excerpt: "Chinese power today is a protean, dynamic force formed by the nexus of authoritarianism, consumerism, global ambitions, and technology. Call it the ACGT model: with the same initials as the nucleotides in DNA, these strands of Chinese power combine and recombine to form China’s modern political identity and approach to the rest of the world. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wants to firm up its grip on Chinese society, encourage consumerism at home and abroad, expand its global influence, and develop and export China’s own advanced technology. China’s current standing and future prospects cannot be understood without seeing all four of those goals together."

Conclusion:

“An ACGT-based bid to reshape the international order demands a more concerted Chinese diplomatic effort overall. Chinese officials now often invoke saccharine platitudes before veering at breakneck speed toward more coercive and confrontational broadsides. Instead, China needs to better understand that global leadership requires concessions, generosity, and a willingness to entertain criticism: a hard realization to achieve in a country where the domestic political culture encourages the suppression, rather than the celebration, of dissent. The major obstacle to China’s rise on the international stage is not U.S. hostility or internal foes. Rather, it is the authoritarian strand of the CCP’s core identity. That authoritarianism and at times confrontational expansionism has the effect of tarnishing the other components of China’s model—the emphasis on consumerism and improvements in material lifestyles, the flawed but sincere commitment to global development and poverty reduction, and China’s truly astonishing capacity for technological innovation. 

The key elements of China’s ideological mixture—Marxism-Leninism, traditional thought, historical analogy, and economic success—have largely eclipsed the always limited power of Western liberalism to influence how the CCP sees the world. But China’s global future depends on how it can successfully recombine the other aspects of its ACGT model. At the moment, Chinese authoritarianism threatens to limit Beijing’s ability to create a plausible new form of global order.”

3. Trump vetoes defense bill, but Congress appears poised to override him

militarytimes.com · by Leo Shane III and Joe Gould · December 23, 2020

I wonder what are the odds the Vegas bookmakers are giving for a possible veto override?

 

4. Miller says last US troops in Afghanistan will be special operations forces

Stars and Stripes · by Caitlin M. Kenney · December 22, 2020

Everyone likes to claim first in, last out.

 

5. Army Rangers have been deployed to combat for 7,000 days straight

sandboxx.us · by Stavros Atlamazoglou · December 23, 2020

Only one or two other military organizations (and an "other government agency") can claim similar numbers. 

 

6. How to Deter China: Enter the Democratic Armada - 19FortyFive

19fortyfive.com · by ByJames Holmes · December 23, 2020

Excerpts:

“On the strategic side, the map conveys much about the Pacific balance of power. U.S. and allied strategy is converging on an approach that seeks to confine the People’s Liberation Army, the navy in particular, to the China seas. Allied forces will make the first island chain a barrier to Chinese maritime movement by plugging up the straits with mines, submarines, warplanes, surface craft, and marines operating on the islands. If successful they will make the Western Pacific into a relatively secure maneuver space for allied naval and air forces.

Such a strategy demands that allied navies practice scouring the Western Pacific of hostile subs. Otherwise Chinese or Russian subs could put a kink in operations off Taiwan, the Senkakus, or wherever the scene of combat happened to be. So the ability to work with allies to accomplish common tasks holds military as well as diplomatic value. It shows they can do what policy and strategy require them to do. The more impressive the show of political solidarity and naval prowess, the more likely hostile great powers are to be deterred. After all, no one picks an unwinnable fight.”

 

7.  General Washington's Christmas Gifts

lawliberty.org · by Richard Samuelson · December 24, 2016

This was published four years ago but is worth reading again.

Excerpts:

“Washington was ambitious, and he craved glory, but it was glory of a higher sort. He wished to be remembered not merely as powerful, but also as a servant of a cause greater than himself.

Upon hearing that General Washington would resign his commission, George III said “if he does that, he will be the greatest man in the world.” General Washington’s Christmas gift to the American republic.”

 

8. How the U.S. Misread China’s Xi: Hoping for a Globalist, It Got an Autocrat

WSJ · by Jeremy Page · December 23, 2020

Relatively long read for the WSJ.

Funny how our assumptions affect strategic outcomes.

Key point:

“The U.S. officials’ conclusion: Although Mr. Xi was far more confident and forthright than Hu Jintao, the stiff and scripted leader he would succeed, he likely shared his commitment to stable ties with Washington and closer integration with the U.S-led global order. Some even hoped Mr. Xi would kick-start stalled economic reforms.

It was one of the biggest strategic miscalculations of the post-Cold War era.

In the eight subsequent years, Mr. Xi has pursued an expansive, hypernationalistic vision of China’s future, displaying a desire for control and a talent for political maneuvering. Drawing comparisons to Mao Zedong, he has crushed critics and potential rivals, revitalized the Communist Party and even scrapped presidential term limits so he can, if he chooses, rule for life.”

 

9. The Lesson of 2020? Security Doesn’t Mean What You Think It Does

thediplomat.com · by Jacob Parakilas · December 23, 2020

Excerpts:

“So how, in a word, can we do better in 2021?

One approach is to broaden the definition of “security threat” to include more than just conventional attack or terrorism. The appeal of this solution is that it might in the short term allow the reprogramming of some of the enormous sums spent on conventional security to address the issues that are actually manifestly damaging the lives and livelihoods of people now, rather than hedging against future threat.

But there is reason to be cautious about this approach. First, complex challenges are not necessarily responsive to the kinds of solutions that securitization has to offer: militaries should be aware of climate change and take actions within their remits to limit their emissions and be prepared for disaster-response operations, for example, but there is little role for an air force or a naval formation in changing incentives for carbon-intensive commercial energy generation or long-haul trucking. Nor is it helpful for managing conventional security threats - which will not go away as unconventional challenges mutate and multiply - to dilute the concept of “threat” to include the full panoply of structural and environmental challenges along with human actors. Analytical precision is important; so is keeping institutions focused on core and achievable goals.”

 

10. Biden Declares Political Center Alive and Well

WSJ · by Gerald F. Seib· December 24, 2020

All hail the center.  We must marginalize the extremists on both sides.

 

11. Ideologies, Cults of Personality, and the Center of Gravity

othjournal.com · by Daniel Riggs · December 21, 2020

Excerpts:

“The COG can illuminate and improve analysis and targeting, but planners must understand strengths and limitations. As Eikmeier notes, “what planners need are tools that help them to make sense of a complex OE and develop an acceptable level of understanding [and use COG] to improve understanding, focus planning, improve efficiency, and is not a disaster”. The current definition tolerates anything to occupy planning efforts instead of focusing on changing conditions and behaviors by targeting entities that animate adversarial ideologies. It should be assumed that adversaries of the U.S. develop strategies to alter the information and operational environment by changing physical conditions and institutions, not operating as a beleaguered press secretary or a debater.

COG, for any of its criticisms, can help us in ambiguous environments as long as we don’t couple the problem by targeting ambiguity. Military planners are intellectually astute, but to compete in the information environment, they will need to be like Fast Eddie Felson playing three-cushion billiard, not pool, against Fendley: remember the principles of what they do right and apply them to dominate the game, after a brief period of confusion.”

 

12. The (Coming) Wave of Vaccine Disinformation

The (Coming) Wave of Vaccine Disinformation · by Jim Ludes ·  December 23, 2020

Buckle up.

Conclusion: "America’s adversaries will seek to divide us on every issue they can find to exploit.  The coronavirus pandemic is no different.  

But we can defeat lies and disinformation with an ironclad commitment to the truth, to science, and to a renewed conviction to work together, 

as Americans, to serve our common good."

 

13. The Toll Of Conspiracy Theories: A Voting Security Expert Lives In Hiding

NPR · by Bente Birkeland · December 23, 2020

It will be interesting to see if anyone can be held criminally or civilly liable for the effects of some of these conspiracy theories.

As an aside, Zignal Labs does some cutting edge analysis.

Excerpt:

“The media intelligence platform Zignal Labs, in an analysis performed at NPR's request, found that misinformation narratives related to vote-by-mail systems alone were mentioned across the media spectrum more than 40 million times since Election Day.

That flood reached Dominion the week after the election, according to Zignal, and misinformation related to the company's machines has been mentioned more than 10 million times since then.”

 

14. Snowden and Assange Deserve Pardons. So Do the Whistleblowers Trump Imprisoned.

The Intercept · by James Risen · December 23, 2020

The Blackwater war criminals were bad enough but Snowden and Assange would be very bad for different reasons.

I am all for press freedom but I think neither Snowden or Assange are journalists and neither should be afforded the respect or protections that we should provide to all real journalists. 

 

15. CFIUS Won’t Be ‘Weaponized’ Under the Biden Administration

Bloomberg  December 24, 2020

 

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"You must not only aim right, but draw the bow with all your might." 

- Henry David Thoreau

 

“In a democracy, someone who fails to get elected to office can always console himself with the thought that there was something not quite fair about it.”

- Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War

 

“The absence of romance in my history will, I fear, detract somewhat from its interest, but if it is judged worthy by those inquirers who desire an exact knowledge of the past as an aid to the understanding of the future, which in the course of human things must resemble if it does not reflect it, I shall be content.

In fine I have written my work not as an essay with which to win the applause of the moment but as a possession for all time.”

 - Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War