San Francisco Giants mailbag: Evaluating the Trevor Bauer chase and Farhan Zaidi’s master plan

Will Farhan Zaidi and Scott Harris spread some belated holiday cheer with a big signing after the New Year? We explore the Giants' chances of adding Trevor Bauer.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, Giants fans.

If no one in your family gave you the gift you were looking for this year, perhaps Giants executives Farhan Zaidi and Scott Harris will deliver some belated holiday cheer.

The 2021 season is approaching and while the Giants’ 40-man roster is full, the team’s offseason wishlist remains incomplete. The Giants plan to continue adding to their rotation, sign a left-handed hitter who offers some positional versatility and potentially acquire another veteran for a bullpen that’s still light on experience.

The offseason waters have been relatively quiet, but that can all change with one big splash. In our Christmas mailbag special, many fans asked about the Giants’ chances of landing Trevor Bauer, so we explored that topic and many others in-depth in part one of a two-part mailbag.

The questions have been lightly edited for spelling and clarity. 

Question from David Lujan, Jr.: What are chances Farhan goes all in on Trevor Bauer? I mean recently the Giants made a run for Giancarlo Stanton & Bryce Harper, I’d like to see them take a one-year flyer on Kyle Schwarber or Joc Pederson and land Trevor Bauer. Your thoughts?

Beat writer Kerry Crowley: I received at least a half dozen questions about the Giants’ interest in Trevor Bauer and we’ll explore that in-depth, but I want to start with this one because I think it’s important to identify what “all-in” means in the context of elite free agent starting pitchers.

Would Zaidi give Bauer a contract similar to the nine-year, $324 million deal Gerrit Cole signed with the Yankees? I’m highly skeptical any organization will give a pitcher a nine-year deal again. Would Zaidi make Bauer the highest-paid player he’s signed as an executive dating back to his days in the Dodgers organization? I do think it’s possible.

With Bauer, it’s important to keep in mind he’s really only had two elite seasons (2018 and 2020) and as he approaches 30 years old, he’s already thrown nearly 1,200 career innings. I’m of the belief Bauer is the type of pitcher who will sustain success and be an effective top-of-the-rotation into his mid-30s, but I’m not sure the Giants love him more than say the Mets or the Angels.

There’s no question the Giants can afford him (look at all the money coming off the books after this season), but is he better than the options they’ll have next offseason? A quick peak at the list of free agents-to-be in 2021-2022 suggests that yes, pursuing Bauer now looks much smarter than waiting for a free agent class that will be led by Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman to become available.

Now, back to the original point: What’s “all-in” look like in the world of Zaidi? A four-year, $120 million deal or five-year, $150 million deal might be the limit of what the Giants are willing to give a top starter.

P.S.–I like Schwarber and I like Pederson. If the Giants think the National League will add the DH, both players would be good fits.

Question from D.J. Bowen: Do you think they’ll stay the course on roster management: Look for cheap diamonds in the rough while waiting until the vets’ big contracts expire and young talent comes up through the system?

Crowley: A good question here because there’s a few layers to this. My belief (as stated above) is that the Giants should pursue Bauer in an effort to bring much-needed stability to the rotation, but I also believe if they don’t end up landing him, it will be a relatively quiet offseason.

We’ve already seen Zaidi and Harris sign a few diamond-in-the-rough types in Anthony DeSclafani, John Brebbia and Jason Vosler, but the Giants have the financial flexibility to go all-in on a Bauer if they believe he’ll set them up for future success. I don’t see them adding a George Springer or D.J. LeMahieu-type because they like their position player balance and money at this point is better spent on pitching, but I do think a decision to implement the DH would change their thinking on one big name.

If the NL adds the DH, look at the Giants’ projected lineup and see how Marcell Ozuna fits in. It’s clearly a much better group with Ozuna in the mix. It wouldn’t shock me if Ozuna waits until MLB reaches a final decision on the DH to sign with a team to maximize the number of potential suitors.

Question from @RevolutionGram1: If you had to pick one realistic Starting Pitcher & Lefty Bat for the Giants to add, who would you choose?

Crowley: I think by this point, everyone knows Bauer is the pitcher I’d choose (and I do think it’s realistic), but I’ll throw out a different name for the sake of this exercise.

The Giants don’t have any left-handers in their rotation and while Zaidi told me that’s not a pressing issue, I refuse to believe they’ll open camp without at least one southpaw projected to pitch every fifth day. I thought Mike Minor would have been a really nice fit, but I’ve moved onto James Paxton. If Paxton is healthy (and that’s a big if), he’s got the frontend starter potential the Giants would love and would also likely be willing to do a one-year deal.

As far as a lefty bat, I was of the belief the Giants should have overpaid David Dahl to convince him to sign in San Francisco instead of with the Texas Rangers. The Giants couldn’t offer Dahl the same amount of playing time, but he would have fit in well as a versatile outfield option who has the speed to handle center field.

It’s likely Jackie Bradley, Jr. is looking for a true everyday role, but I’m certain the Giants would love to have him as an option in center field against right-handed pitchers. Signing Bradley, Jr. would let Gabe Kapler move Mauricio Dubón around the infield more freely and set him up for the Kiké Hernández-like role I think Dubón could thrive in.

Question from @BayAreaChriss: When should we expect to see Heliot Ramos or Marco Luciano called up?

Crowley: Projecting the arrival of top prospects in the major leagues became much harder due to the cancelation of the 2020 minor league season, but the best young players in the Giants’ farm system still spent valuable time honing their skills at the alternate site in Sacramento and the instructional league in Arizona.

With Ramos, I’d be relatively surprised if he didn’t make at least a cameo by September. I don’t think it’s out of the question he could hit his way into the picture by the middle of the summer, but the end of the season feels like a good time to work him in no matter what because the Giants will need to add him to the 40-man roster next offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

With Luciano, it feels aggressive to say September, 2021, but he’s too talented for me to rule out the possibility. The middle of the 2022 season is probably a more realistic timeline, but Luciano is the real deal. He had a lot of room to grow when I saw him during the Giants’ summer camp at Oracle Park, but everyone who’s seen him play knows his talent is immense.

Question from Ed Coghlan: LA is great. San Diego is good. What must the Giants do to make the playoffs in 2021?

Crowley: Pitch better.

The Giants hit well enough to make the playoffs for much of the 2020 season and actually had a great bullpen and a top-notch infield defense during the second half of the 60-game schedule, but their starting pitching just wasn’t deep enough. The lack of quality starters stretched the bullpen to the absolute limit and it made Kapler’s job significantly more challenging, so creating more stability in the rotation should remain the Giants’ top priority through Opening Day.

Aside from signing or trading for better starters, the Giants may also need to hope the playoff field is expanded in 2021. Zaidi has finally committed to moving beyond the “Let’s play meaningful baseball” goal to a “Make the postseason” mantra, but I’m skeptical the Giants’ current roster can make the playoffs. Sign Bauer, Bradley, Jr., a closer and a lefty for the middle of the rotation and I’ll be a believer.

Question from @LFGSFG: Do the Giants plan on spending big in free agency next year? I know there’s a big group of star shortstops becoming free agents, are any of them early targets?

Crowley: Let me put it this way: If the Giants don’t spend big in free agency next year, there’s probably a major unforeseen issue.

Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto, Anthony DeSclafani and Wilmer Flores can all become free agents next offseason, so the Giants could be headed for a major overhaul. A number of those players will be candidates to return and the Giants can exercise the team option on Flores’ contract, but they’re going to have a bunch of money to play with.

Signing Trevor Story or Corey Seager would weaken an opponent within the division, and both are among the loaded free agent shortstop class.

Even if the 2022 payroll doesn’t look like the Giants’ payroll did before the coronavirus pandemic, they’re going to have to find a way to replace all that they’re losing. Spending is inevitable.