MMO Free Agent Profile: Trevor Rosenthal, RHP

Trevor Rosenthal

Bats/Throws: R/R

Date of Birth: 5/29/1990 (30)

Traditional Stats: 1-0, 23 saves, 23 Games, 23.2 innings, 0.85 WHIP, 1.90 ERA

Advanced Stats: 1.2 bWAR, 0.7 fWAR, 2.22 FIP, 2.83 xFIP, 1.69 WPA

Rundown

Trevor Rosenthal has seemingly been in the league forever and has always been throwing 98-99 MPH fastballs over the course of his career. Rosenthal looked like one of the worst pitchers in baseball during 2019. Then in 2020 he was one of the best relievers in baseball. Can’t predict baseball, Suzyn. Well okay, this one is not too surprising. A hard throwing reliever starting to get more swings and misses off his fastball should not be a major surprise to anyone. Especially considering he was another year removed from Tommy John Surgery.

As mentioned above, Rosenthal was really bad in 2019. He only pitched 15.1 innings in that season and had a 13.50 ERA, 6.87 FIP, and a 8.55 xFIP. In 2020, he had 23.2 IP with a 1.90 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 2.83 xFIP. Not to mention, Rosenthal’s K/9 jumped from 9.98 to 14.45 between 2019 and 2020. The K/9 figure is much closer to Rosenthal’s career K/9 of 12.12.

Rosenthal’s numbers in 2020 might be a little too good but between 2013-2017, Rosenthal had a FIP under three in four out of the five seasons. So he is probably not suddenly going to post numbers like Andrew Miller did in his prime, but he is a much better reliever than his 2019 season would indicate. One good thing for Rosenthal is that he never lost his velocity. Usually pitcher’s will lose that first if they are on the decline but it seems like 2019 was more a blip for Rosenthal rather than a decline.

The thing that jumps out to me on Rosenthal is that he had much better command in 2020. Rosenthal threw his first pitch for a strike just 47.1% of the time in 2019, much lower than his career rate of 58.5%. In 2020 that figure was 60.4%, which would suggest that he regained his command from earlier in his career.

One thing to note about Rosenthal and his fit with the Mets is his success against lefties. Lefties hit a meager .119/.224/.167 while striking out about 45% of the time against Rosenthal in 2020. For his career, lefties have hit .207/.316/.256 against Rosenthal. He has very strong reverse splits, just something to consider given that the Mets have supposedly been looking for a lefty to finish their bullpen.

Contract

FanGraphs has projected him to get a two-year deal worth worth $16 million. Trevor May got roughly that and he has been better since 2018 with better health.

I think Rosenthal would get a two-year deal worth about $12 million at this point, maybe $14 million. That being said, Archie Bradley just signed a one-year deal worth $6 million. Given the volatility of relievers (just look at Rosenthal), I think Rosenthal will hold out for a two-year deal.

My Take

I think I have talked myself into it. A bullpen of Diaz, Lugo, Rosenthal, and May would be one of the best in baseball. Rosenthal can get lefties out at a high rate and if need be, the Mets can always bring back someone like Chasen Shreve if they are desperate for left-handed depth.