The Overseen Factors Impacting the Afghan Peace Process
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pThe international community is focused on the ongoing intra‐Afghan peace process, which has steadied despite several challenges. There are two developments, however, that will have anbsp;lasting impact on the process: The International Criminal Court’s investigation into war crimes committed by the Taliban, Afghan forces, and US forces, and the strategic evolution of the Taliban as anbsp;legitimate political actor./p
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pThe Afghan peace process is promising. The current round of talks began in September 2020, following anbsp;a href=https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Signed-Agreement-02292020.pdfUS‐Taliban agreement/a and a href=https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/02.29.20-US-Afghanistan-Joint-Declaration.pdfUS‐Afghanistan Joint Declaration/a in February 2020. Both of these joint agreements created the basis for beginning the necessary intra‐Afghan dialogue. Violence, however, a href=https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war-and-peace/war-in-afghanistan-in-2020-just-as-much-violence-but-no-one-wants-to-talk-about-it/has continued/a in Afghanistan. Since the agreements, the Taliban a href=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-taliban-talks/u-s-taliban-deal-will-not-stop-attacks-on-afghan-forces-some-talibanBhave not/a attacked any foreign troops but have a href=https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/afghan-security-forces-civilians-face-50-percent-surge-attacks-u-n1246530continued attacking/a Afghan National Security Forces and civilians. Afghan security officials stated that in the third week of October alone the Taliban a href=https://www.csis.org/analysis/afghanistan-peace-negotiations-have-become-extension-war-otherstaged-meansstaged/a 356 attacks along with 2nbsp;suicide and 52 mine explosions. Agreements, therefore, do not cease violence but peace talks, no matter how slow, do create favorable conditions for ceasefires./p
pThe Taliban’s a href=https://www.bbc.com/news/worfirst%20ceasefireld-asia-44423032first ceasefire/a was in June 2018 and lasted for three days to mark the customary duration of Eid ul‐Fitr. Since then, the Taliban has declared ceasefires two more times: once in a href=https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2019/12/29/taliban-council-agrees-to-temporary-cease-fire-in-afghaDecember%202019%20before%20the%20onsetnistan/December 2019/a before the onset of their talks with the United States, and another time ina href=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asiaMay%202020%20to%20mark%20Eid%20ul%20Fitr-52785604 May 2020/a to mark Eid ul‐Fitr. With continuous talks going on, more frequent and longer ceasefires seem possible and promising. But more than ceasefires, there are two developments that will have anbsp;larger—and perhaps longer—impact on the peace process: The International Criminal Court’s (ICC) investigation into war crimes committed by Afghan and US forces in Afghanistan, and the evolution of the Taliban as anbsp;legitimate political actor./p
pThe international community has been paying close attention to the peace talks’ process, thea href=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/27/afghanistan-government-announces-team-for-taliban-talks/ actors/a involved, and the implications for foreign troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. The process, however, has been painstakingly slow. Even when the Afghan government and the Taliban a href=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/asia/afghanistanmet%20in%20Doha-taliban.htmlmet/a in Doha, Qatar on September 12, 2020 a href=https://www.npr.org/2020/10/06/920859158/afghan-peace-talks-stalled-over-rules-to-refer-to-when-sides-reach-a-deadlockneither side/a could agree on the procedures for the talks or even anbsp;meetings schedule. a href=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/29/world/asia/afghanistan-taliban-pushback%20from%20the%20Afghan%20governmenteace-talks.htmlFinally/a, on December 2, 2020 Nader Nadery, senior advisor to President of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani, a href=https://twitter.com/N_Nadery/status/1334101797951205377tweeted/a that anbsp;process and anbsp;preamble have been agreed upon. Mohammad Naeem, the Taliban’s spokesman based in Doha, also a href=https://twitter.com/IeaOffice/status/1334103287080116224tweeted/a confirming the agreement, with US Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad a href=https://twitter.com/US4AfghanPeace/status/1334108215735365632praising both sides/a for reaching this milestone. While the negotiations about the agenda will be similarly slow and contentious, the coordination between the Afghan government and Taliban is an encouraging show of goodwill and coordination./p
pAlong with the talks, the plan for US troop withdrawal is also under scrutiny by US policymakers, allies, and regional stakeholders alike. On November 17, 2020 the a href=https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/17/politics/afghanistan-iraq-withdrawal-pentagon/index.html?utm_source=dailybriefamp;ut020Nov18amp;utm_term=Pentagon%20announcedDailyNewsBriefPentagon announced/a that the United States would be withdrawing approximately 2,000 US troops from Afghanistan by January 15, 2021. This troop reduction would leave approximately 2,500 US troops in Afghanistan to protect US embassies and other US agencies working with the Afghan government. While the date of the withdrawal seems political—President-elect Joe Biden will take office on January 20, 2021—and has raised some a href=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54980141policy concerns/a, there is anbsp;general consensus among American policymakers that the US war in Afghanistan needs to end. US allies, however, remain critical of US plans to leave Afghanistan. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg a href=https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-167995?utm_source=dailybriefamp;utm_mediumlyNewsBstatedriefstated/a that the NATO mission will remain and any withdrawal plans are “conditions‐based” and will not be discussed till the next NATO defense minister meeting, scheduled for February 2021. Even a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistan-braces-for-worst-as-u-s-troop-withdrawal-accelerates-11605799305Afghanistan/a and a href=https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-11-19/us-withdrawal-rattles-afghan-allies-and-adversaries-alikeregional stakeholders /aare concerned about this most recent withdrawal announcement./p
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pAlong with the talks, the plan for US troop withdrawal is also under scrutiny by US policymakers, allies, and regional stakeholders alike./p
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pThe International Criminal Court’s (ICC) March 5, 2020 a href=https://www.lawfareblog.com/icc-appeals-chamber-authorizes-investigation-crimes-afghanistanreopening/a of its inquiry into war crimes committed by the US military, Afghan authorities, and the Taliban, however, is an important development—and will impact the peace process. The Trump administration acted swiftly: on June 11, 2020 President Trump issued an a href=https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/06/15/2020-12953/blocking-property-of-certain-persons-associated-with-the-internationan%20executive%20orderal-criminal-courtexecutive order/a where ICC lawyers, judges, researchers, and other staff could have their US bank accounts frozen and US visas revoked, and on September 2, 2020 the United States applied sanctions for the a href=https://thehill.com/video/administration/514743-watch-live-sec-pompeo-holdapplied%20sanctions%20for%20the%20first%20time%20on%20an%20ICC%20prosecutor%20s-press-briefingfirst time/a on an ICC prosecutor. But the ICC’s investigation is not anbsp;surprise. The US‐led war in Afghanistan is one of the longest wars in modern time, and activists have long been calling for investigations on various militaries for human rights abuses. Just recently, the Australian government released anbsp;gruesome report on unlawful killings by one of a href=https://link.cfr.org/click/22145333.30971/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyMC8xMS8xOC93b3JsZC9hdXN0cmFsaWEvYWZnaGFuaXN0YW4td2FyLWNyaW1lcy5odG1sP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9ZGFpbHlicmllZg/5deaca45fc942d4a17cda6c7B737e0eacAustralia’s special forces/a in Afghanistan. These investigative reports make an unwavering case for withdrawing foreign troops from Afghanistan. With regards to the peace process, the Taliban and Afghan government have two choices: they can either ignore ICC’s investigation and its findings or acknowledge them and work toward building trust. Ignoring ICC’s findings offer little benefit and will likely make the peace process seem hollow. Addressing ICC’s findings, however, will allow for all stakeholders, including foreign forces, to be held accountable, which is necessary for creating lasting pathways for reconciliation./p
pThe second neglected development is the Taliban itself. What do these peace talks really mean for the Taliban? Are they on the path of becoming like the Muslim Brotherhood or Hezbollah—groups that are still labeled as “terrorist groups” but more or less function as legitimate political parties with some local support? Since 2017, Afghanis have been a href=https://asiafoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/2019_Afghan_Survey_Full-Report.pdf#page=70cautiously optimistic/a about the possibility of anbsp;reconciliation between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Awareness and support for the peace talks among local Afghanis a href=https://asiafoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/2019_Afghan_Survey_Full-Report.pdf#page=168have grown/a as well, making one thing crystal clear: the Taliban are here to stay. As the peace process continues, the Taliban’s place in anbsp;post‐war Afghanistan will have both regional and international implications. For starters, it will help solidify the a href=https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/311-taking-stock-talibans-perspectives-peaceTaliban’s position/a as anbsp;legitimate political actor and anbsp;representative of Afghanistan on the international stage. The Taliban of today is a href=https://cic.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/taliban_future_state_final.pdfnot the same/a from 2001, when the 9/11 attacks took place. Rather, the Taliban have become more sophisticated: the group has anbsp;a href=https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/the-rise-of-taliban-diplomacy/growing relationship/a with a href=https://warontherocks.com/2020/10/russias-contemporary-afghan-policy/Russia/a, its Central Asian neighbors, and even the a href=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/afghanistan-peace-talks-begin-doha-qatar/United States/a. Whether or not the Taliban would participate in an Afghan national election or even get voted into office is yet to be seen, but if peace talks are successful, then all of these scenarios are possible./p
pWhile peace remains elusive in Afghanistan right now, the continuation of these talks is anbsp;huge achievement for both the Afghan government and the Taliban. It is also commendable that the Trump administration is encouraging both sides to a href=https://link.cfr.org/click/22181264.23970/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudm9hbmV3cy5jb20vbWlkZGxlLWVhc3QvcG9tcGVvLW1lZXRzLWFmZ2hhbi10YWxpYmFuLW5lZ290aWF0b3JzLXFhdGFyP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9ZGFpbHlicmllZg/5deaca45fc942d4a17cda6c7B25579532speed up discussions /aand reach anbsp;permanent ceasefire. But it is now time to think concretely about the permanent aftereffects of the war in Afghanistan, specifically about the atrocities and human rights violations committed by sovereign and legitimate armed forces and the Taliban’s transformation into anbsp;regional player. For example, as anbsp;member of the ICC, the Afghan government should support the ICC investigation into war crimes by foreign troops, Afghan forces, and the Taliban in an effort to hold all parties accountable for their role in the loss of thousands of innocent Afghan civilians and to create anbsp;foundation for post‐war reconciliation and lasting peace. The Taliban should also focus on post‐war reconciliation and economic reconstruction, starting with a href=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-46554097reducing/a its opium production and finding other legitimate sources of revenue./p
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pSahar Khan is an adjunct fellow in Defense and Foreign Policy Studies at Cato Institute./p