General Situation. Active duty Burmese generals have been experiencing a steady loss of the control for some time. This has been happening in various ways:
Internal competition with former-generals wielding new-found economic power undercutting active duty generals’ power
Aung San Suu Kyi’s (ASSK) continued favor among pro-democracy masses
ASSK’s political engagement with the international community
ASSK’s personal relationship with China’s Xi Jing Ping
China undercutting Burmese generals’ dominance of economic power
China’s strategy of economic encroachment to dominate key border regions in Burma
China empowering select ethnic armed organizations to keep Burmese generals militarily off balance
The rise of strong ethnic alliances as blocks of MIL-ECON power to be reckoned with
Wide dispersion of pro-democracy revolutionaries imbedded in public and private sectors
Burmese generals’ embarrassment with its field forces being tactically bested by small aggressive ethnic armies defending homelands
Uncertain agendas by international Islamist organizations quietly exploiting turmoil in Western Burma
Ethnic armies and state governments’ are at the point of greatest disunity after systemic failure of the West to empower them as states’ rights defenders going back to World War II in partnership with USA and Great Britain.
The above conditions provide sufficient rationale for Burmese active duty generals to consolidate power in a major reset. This may be like the Italian Mafia doing spring cleaning. Eliminating competitors for power, and coercive reshuffling break up cliques and networks among Burman power elites.
The so-called democracy movement is pretty much a sham that vested all hope in one persona of Aung San Suu Kyi. The fatal flaw in this logic is that landed non-Burman ethnics covering over half of Burma, most of whom where our WWII allies, were left out of the pro-democracy equation as states’ rights defenders. This would be akin to assuming that Americans could have won their revolution by politicians in Philadelphia alone, minus the military-economic-civilian capacities and resolve of land-based patriot peoples from Maine to Georgia.
The Chinese Communist Party has been corrupting Burman elites on all sides (NLD and the generals), so it is prudent to consider the extent to which the coup is either designed to impede this or in some way accommodate it. The CCP is likely going for broke by working all sides against each other in a bid to secure a compliant / obedient Burma for unrestricted access to the Indian Ocean and markets beyond.
US has opportunity to be a strategic game changer in this contest if it would only focus expertly on its best chance for a functioning democratic democracy in the world. Invest in the game changers among proven ethnic pro-democracy defenders. Solid footing for progress.
Ethnic minorities of Burma under decades-long oppression remain at high risk today. They are “in they way of progress” in the eyes of the central Burman government’s and international globalization’s interests. The simple truth is that these diverse peoples, who were the original inhabitants of Burma starting over 2,700-years ago, are sitting on top of ancestral lands rich in natural resources and hydro-power. For this they have been under constant siege.
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