The Most Important Matchups and Best Bets for Thursday’s NBA Slate
We’ve reached the end of the first half of the NBA slate, and Thursday is the final day of games before the All-Star break. There are nine-games on tap for tonight, starting with two contests at 7 p.m. ET and wrapping up with two contests at 10 p.m. ET.
Teams will often use this day to grab some extra rest for their star players, and the Warriors have decided to sit Steph Curry and Draymond Green vs. the Suns. Kelly Oubre is also questionable after missing their last contest. How will the Warriors fare vs. the Suns without possibly their top three players?
Let’s dive in.
KEY MATCHUPS
It’s pretty obvious that the Warriors will be worse without Curry, Green, and possibly Oubre, but the big question is how much worse will they be? They’re currently listed as 11.5-point underdogs on FanDuel Sportsbook, making them the largest underdogs on the slate.
That’s definitely a bit of an intimidating number, but it may still be overvaluing the Warriors. Curry and Green have been their two best players by an alarming degree. They’ve increased their Net Rating by +12.6 points per 100 possessions with Curry on the floor and +12.1 points per 100 possessions while Green is playing.
Overall, Curry and Green have played 878 minutes together this season, and the Warriors have outscored their opponents by an average of +5.1 points per 100 possessions. That’s a strong number.
However, their offense has been a complete disaster with both players off the floor this season. They average a paltry 97.3 points per 100 possessions, which is nearly impossible in 2020. To put that in perspective, the Thunder have been the worst offensive team in basketball this season, and they’ve still averaged 105.26 points per 100 possessions.
Making matters worse, the shorthanded Warriors will be facing one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Suns rank sixth in defensive efficiency, so the Warriors will struggle mightily to score the ball in this contest.
Phoenix has also been excellent on the offensive end this season, and their resulting Net Rating of +6.30 ranks second in the league. That puts them behind only the Jazz in that department.
The Suns have been absolutely rolling recently, winning 12 of their past 14 games while posting a Net Rating of +12.9 points per 100 possessions. In other words, they aren’t just beating teams; they’re steamrolling them.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that they’ve been one of the best teams in the league against the spread. They’ve posted a record of 23-11 against the spread this season, and they’ve covered in both of their previous opportunities when favored by at least 10 points.
Simply put, I don’t think the Suns are being given enough respect at the moment. They are one of the best teams in basketball at the moment, and they are facing a roster that will be almost completely devoid of talent. I have no problem laying the points with Phoenix.
LINE MOVEMENT
There have already been some significant line moves on today’s slate.
The Suns have seen the largest line move, but the Knicks are another team that has seen the line move in their favor. They were initially listed as five-point favorites vs. the Pistons, but they’re up to -7.0 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Knicks are dealing with some injury issues for tonight’s contest, but the bigger issues are on the other side. Frank Jackson and Josh Jackson have both been ruled out due to illnesses, while Jerami Grant is questionable. Grant was unable to suit up yesterday vs. the Raptors, and he’s been their best player this season by a sizable margin.
The Knicks have received 64% of the spread bets and 65% of the spread dollars, so the public clearly believes in them on Thursday.
BETTING BREAKDOWNS
BEST BETS FROM THE SPORTSGRID BETTING MODEL
Find out who our betting model likes in each of tonight’s nine NBA contests, including Raptors vs. Celtics and Bucks vs. Grizzlies.
PLAYER PROP BETS
Joe Cervenka highlights a few player props providing value on Thursday’s slate of games at FanDuel Sportsbook.