Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks, and Betting Preview for NBA Basketball Game

Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers Game Information

Denver Nuggets (20-15) vs. Indiana Pacers (16-18)

Date: 3/4/21

Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

Venue: Bankers Life Fieldhouse

TV Coverage: NBA League Pass, Altitude Sports, Fox Sports Indiana

Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: (Open: Nuggets -175 / Pacers +135) (Current: Nuggets -210 / Pacers +176)

Spread: (Open: Nuggets -2.5) (Current: Nuggets -4)

Total: (Open: 225.5) (Current: 225.5)

NBA Championship Odds: Nuggets +3000 / Pacers +6000

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Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers News and Notes

Denver lists six players on the injury report: Paul Milsap (knee), Gary Harris (thigh), Markus Howard (COVID-19 protocol), R.J. Hampton (COVID-19 protocol), JaMychal Green (shoulder), and Facundo Campazzo (COVID-19 protocol) have all been ruled out. 

Indiana lists two players on the injury report: Caris Levert (abdomen) and T.J. Warren (foot) are both ruled out until April.

Notable Trends

• The total is 21-6 to the over in Denver’s last 27 games as a road favorite.
• The total is 16-5 to the over in Denver’s last 21 road games when facing a team that’s below .500 at home.
• The total is 20-7 to the over in Denver’s last 27 games on one day’s rest.
• The total is on a 4-0 run to the over in Indiana’s last four games.
• The total is on a 5-0 run to the over in Indiana’s last five games off a loss.
• The total is 5-0 to the over in their last five meetings in Indiana.
• The total is 20-8 to the over in their last 28 meetings.
• Denver is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Indiana.

Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers Predictions and Picks

The obvious way to begin this handicap is the injury report, as the Nuggets have enough players listed there that they could field a second starting five. These aren’t just peripheral players either, as Milsap, Harris, Green all average at least 20 minutes per game while Campazzo averages 15 minutes.

As if that’s not enough to deal with in handicapping this game, tonight will also be the final day of NBA action before the All-Star break. This means you also have to factor in who is motivated and who has already checked out with their bags packed. All in all, this could be a messy game, but one thing I would be surprised to see is a ton of defense being played by either team.

The Nuggets come into this game on a three-game winning streak and with a 20-15 record. They’re currently the seventh seed in the Western Conference, but they’re just a half-game behind the Portland Trail Blazers, the fifth seed. This is a great spot for the Nuggets to pick up a win and continue their momentum right into the All-Star weekend. With Denver having a short bench tonight, their starters could be expected to play more minutes considering that they’ll have plenty of rest and recovery time on the back end of the All-Star break. When you couple that with the strong trends to the over for both teams, I think it could be a busy night for the scoreboard operator. Not only have both teams cashed over tickets coming into this game, but when facing one another, the over has cashed 20 times in their last 28 meetings. In fact, this season, Denver is 23-12 (65.7%) to the over, while Indiana is 20-13-1 (60.6).

As far as a side in this matchup, I think you’d have to go with the Nuggets. We’ve already seen some sharp action come in on them as Denver was bet up to -5 after they opened as a 2.5 point favorite. There was a bit of buyback on the Pacers at +5, pushing the line down to +4, which currently sits at the moment.

I would actually restrict my play to the Nuggets in the first half as I’d expect them to start fast against a Pacers team that’s on the second leg of a back-to-back.

The Nuggets are 21-14 ATS in the first half this season, while the Pacers are just 13-21 ATS in this spot. Denver has also covered the first-half spread in their last three games while the Pacers are 0-3 in that same span.

With Denver as a 2.5 point favorite in the first half, I like the idea of making that a play along with the over in tonight’s game.

The Pick: Over 225.5

Bonus: Denver 1H -2.5