Fredy and Rui

The news that the Club is looking to maybe (probably?) sign Fredy Montero kicked off (sorry) discussion among the fans about whether it's a good signing.

My gut instinct is that we might play with a 2-forward lineup more this season, and this is a depth move. Raul Ruidiaz keeps getting Peru callups; and they have 8 games across four international windows that he'll presumably be gone for. Between that and just plain needing more forwards if you're going to put two out at a time instead of one, we need guys who can kick the ball into the other guys' net.

But besides just depth, I feel like Fredy's more natural position is as a withdrawn forward, occupying the space behind the further-forward a little bit. I can actually see him getting a moderate amount of time on the field with Ruidiaz because of this, because I think Raul (despite being a short guy) plays pretty advanced and gets a lot of touches up top.

Now, I'm not much of an analyst, but I do know that we can look at heat maps and see where their touches have come over the past couple of years, to see if this bears out.

First up, Fredy's past three seasons in four maps (2018 is split across two graphics because he was in Portugal):

Montero, 2020:

Montero, 2019:

Montero, 2018 pt 1:

Montero, 2018 pt 2:

Next up, Raul's maps from the past three seasons:

2020:

2019:

2018:

So from this extremely basic look, I think my gut reaction is backed up with some data. Montero definitely looks to not get the ball in as advanced a position as Ruidiaz does; Fredy doesn't have much in the box, for example, in any of the four heat maps we're looking at here.

And on a side note: last year, Ruidiaz was NOT getting the ball in the box as much as the previous two seasons. Look at all those touches around the spot in 2019! But even in 2020, he still got more touches in the 18 than Fredy did.

I like this. I think one thing that other clubs figured out a bit was that if they can deny Raul that service in the box, it gives them at least a little bit of a fighting chance, because we haven't consistently had someone who could also bomb away from outside of there.

But with Montero... he'll have a whack at it from beyond 15-18 yards, and with his quick release and power, he'll probably pick up a few longer-range goals.

It'll keep the defense a bit more honest, and Fredy's got some decent passing at times, too- that might help us unlock some defenses.

The more I think about it, the more I like this move, and I think it continues the strong hints that we will see a bit of a formation change this season.