Brandon Nimmo Deserves More Credit For His Offensive Progression

Opening Day is less than a month away and the New York Mets are officially preparing for their April 1st date with the Washington Nationals by playing in spring training games, which is just lovely. With that, though, comes a lot of opinions from everywhere on the interwebs on exactly what manager Luis Rojas should be doing with a roster that’s much deeper than the version he had in 2020.

A lineup that includes the likes of Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil (among others) is one that’ll not only be deep but dynamic on a daily basis. There needs to be someone setting the tone at the top of this order, and from what Rojas said earlier this week, those honors will mostly belong to Brandon Nimmo.

While the dark corner of #MetsTwitter is likely fuming of the fact that a “fourth outfielder” will be leading off for New York in 2021, that statement from Rojas was merely a formality. Nimmo spent 41 games in the leadoff spot during the 2020 season and another 30 (out of 69 games played) during an injury-shortened 2019 campaign. This is a good spot for him because he’s produced a .390 on-base percentage since debuting in 2016, which is tied for the fifth-highest mark among hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances during that time.

This is all well and dandy, but of course, one of the biggest knocks on Nimmo’s game from detractors is that he needs to be more aggressive at the plate. Here’s a perfect example from the Twitter machine earlier this week when Rojas declared his intentions:

That’s what Mickey Callaway said two years ago. As Nimmo put it, “I’m definitely not a Vladimir Guerrero.” A .390 career OBP will suffice. https://t.co/F7bgtPkMGu

— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) March 1, 2021

This is something that’s been grinding my gears for a little while because I talked about this very topic last March, which feels like 20 years ago. And with another year of plate appearances — albeit in a shortened season — under his belt, the trend I noticed then is still happening.

There was a time when Nimmo needed to get more aggressive in the appropriate situations while in the batter’s box — in 2017, his swing rate was down at 36.8%. However, everything has been trending in the right direction since then, and he’s been able to do so without sacrificing anything in his overall plate approach. Here’s a quick look at how his chase rate and swing rate on strikes has progressed each season, along with the corresponding contact rates.

Well, will you look at that — after watching most of these categories bottom out during 2017, nearly all of them have continually climbed between 2018 and 2020. It’s been a very gradual climb, but Nimmo has indeed slightly expanded his zone a bit while also getting more aggressive on pitches he can potentially do more damage with.

The best part of his development is that while his walk rate has stayed reasonably steady over the years (15.3%, 15.0%, 18.1%, and 14.7% from 2017-20), his strikeout rate dipped under 25.0% for the first time last season (it settled in at 19.1%). If we use the past four seasons as the barometer since he’s racked up at least 200 plate appearances in each campaign, we’ve got some nice developments going on here. He’s swinging more than ever before (41.2% swing rate in 2020) and he’s making more contact than ever before (78.9% last season).

His progression and maturity as a hitter look even better when peeking at some of the league’s average plate-discipline stats. We’ve got Nimmo’s numbers in the above table, and he’s doing everything he should be doing right now. His chase rate was well below the league-average rate of 30.6%, while his swing rate on strikes was slightly above the league-average rate of 67.8%. And even though his swing rate was below the 45.9% league average, Nimmo bested the average contact rate (78.9% to 75.3%).

Could he be more aggressive in the strike zone? Well, yea, that’s almost always the case depending on the situation. But as Nimmo said himself, he’s not going to be Vladimir Guerrero, or someone else on his team who’s very aggressive in his approach, like McNeil. Simply swinging more isn’t going to improve everything — it’ll likely erode the approach that’s made him a productive big-league hitter since his 2018 breakout.

What he has done well is continue to progress with each year of experience he’s gained with the Mets. He’s slowly making adjustments and getting more aggressive in high-leverage opportunities. These small, incremental steps are what’s going to help him keep the best part of his game — getting on base — a focal point while he becomes a better hitter.

The change hasn’t been drastic, but Nimmo has done plenty to continue evolving as a big leaguer. He’s got more work to do — here and in other areas — as he enters his age-28 campaign this season. However, it’ll be great to see this progression continue at the top of what’s become a vastly improved lineup thanks to an active offseason.

The post Brandon Nimmo Deserves More Credit For His Offensive Progression first appeared on Metsmerized Online.