NHL Betting Guide For March 5th
You know it will be an exciting weekend of hockey when the six-game Friday night slate is the quietest of the weekend schedule. Seven of 10 games went over the total last night, and seven of 10 favorites won on the moneyline.
Here are a few wagers to consider from the NHL page at FanDuel Sportsbook!
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Blackhawks +164, Lightning -196
Spread: Blackhawks +1.5 (-170), Lightning -1.5 (+140)
Total: O6.5 +108
Odds to Win Stanley Cup: Blackhawks +3900|Lightning +600
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning News, Analysis, and Picks
Friday night will be the second night of a back-to-back for the Chicago Blackhawks and Tampa Bay Lightning. The Bolts eeked out a victory Thursday night by erasing a two-goal deficit in the third period before winning in overtime.
There was an excessive amount of offense in last night’s game. The Hawks and Bolts combined for 71 shots, 75 scoring chances, and 19 high-danger opportunities. Despite this free-flowing offense, there were only five goals thanks to Andrei Vasilevskiy and Kevin Lankinen.
With both teams electing to go with their primary goalies on the first night, that leaves Malcolm Subban and Curtis McElhinney and their respective career save percentages of 90.1% and 90.9% starting tonight. Both goalies have concerning metrics; going back to last season, Subban has allowed five goals in each of his last four home starts and McElhinney has posted a save percentage below 90.0% in nine of his last 14 starts.
That should mean big things for Chicago as they have managed 40 high-danger chances and 121 scoring opportunities over their last three games.
Another factor worth considering is the Lightning’s poor advanced metrics recently. Tampa has put up an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in five of their last seven, yet have won six of those games. They have built up a 1.073 PDO in those seven games and will come hurtling back down to average.
We have two plays highlighted in this game. Chicago outplayed the Bolts by a substantial margin last night but were tough luck losers. We’re expecting that trend to reverse tonight, as they get the best of Tampa Bay as +164 underdogs. With both teams going with backup goalies tonight, that could mean a generous amount of goals. We’re on the over 6.5 at +108.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Anaheim Ducks, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Avalanche – 290, Ducks +235
Spread: Avalanche -1.5 (+104), Ducks +1.5 (-125)
Total: O5.5 -108
Odds to Win Stanley Cup: Avalanche +800|Ducks +15000
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!
Colorado Avalanche vs. Anaheim Ducks News, Analysis, and Picks
The Colorado Avalanche return home after a successful 3-1-0 road trip to take on the Anaheim Ducks on Friday night.
Injuries could impact the Avs lineup composition tonight, with Cale Makar already being ruled out, and both Nathan MacKinnon and Bowen Byram are questionable with upper-body injuries. Makar and MacKinnon are huge parts of the offensive engine, driving possession and production metrics while getting the lion’s share of offensive zone starts.
Colorado has also been more reserved offensively on home ice. They have managed more than 11 high-danger opportunities just once and more than 30 scoring chances twice. That has resulted in five of their eight games as the home team (which includes one outdoor game) staying under the total.
This is going to be a long season for the Ducks. From an offensive perspective, they are among the worst in the league. Anaheim ranks 29th in shots, 28th in shooting percentage, and last in goals per game. Even if we see a jump in output up to their expected goals, it’s not going to be a big enough jump to help the Ducks’ games go flying over the total.
Both teams have some concerns relating to their offensive metrics. The Ducks are among the worst offensive teams in the league, and the Avs could be without two of their most productive players. It’s also worth noting that Anaheim and Colorado have been reliable ‘under’ teams. The Avs have stayed under the total in 12 of 20 games, and the Ducks have stayed under in 14 of 22. Based on our analysis, we’re expecting that trend to continue tonight. Under 5.5 is the wager to make.