THE PLAYERS Championship Betting Picks & Analysis
Tournament and Course Overview
Golf’s unofficial fifth major traditionally boasts the best field of the entire year, and do not expect anything different come this Thursday at Ponta Vedra Beach for the 2021 PLAYERS Championship. THE PLAYERS often brings the most casual of golf fans into the sports for the calendar year, as the Masters is not too far off with the string of major after major each month throughout the summer after that.
Of course, we all remember one year ago, when after the first round of play, the tournament was canceled due to COVID-19 — the end of live sporting events as we knew it for the next four months or so. Something tells me Hideki Matsuyama still has an axe to grind after he carded a beautiful opening round 63, tying the course record; that was all for naught. Alas, we are back at TPC Sawgrass, and Rory McIlroy still holds the honor of being the defending champ after his impressive victory here in 2019.
This 7,189 yard, Par 72 Pete Dye design has bred champions from all varieties over the years. There isn’t a concise skill set to target when making your selections this week, but keep in mind that the average scrambling percentage at Sawgrass is a solid five points below the TOUR average. We also want to note that the majority of approach shots come in from the 200+ yard bucket as many of the par 4s require less than driver off the tee box.
The Picks
All prices through FanDuel Sportsbook.
I will gladly buy the dip on Sam Burns after his missed cut at the API. Burns held the 36, and 54 hole leads at the Genesis two weeks ago before missing out on a playoff by one stroke, so it was natural he had a slight letdown to follow that up. Burns does his best putting by a wide margin on Bermuda greens and boasts the 10th ranked ball-striking stats of players in this field over their past 24 rounds. I still do not think Burns is ready for the winner’s circle, but his top 10 price at 12-1 will find its way onto my card this week.
It was only six weeks ago that Joaquin Niemann had back-to-back second-place finishes in Hawaii, and the bookmakers have seemed to have forgotten that as they have priced him up quite nicely for THE PLAYERS. After a few unmemorable performances at the Genesis and Concession, I will pull the trigger at 75-1 on a guy who not only has gained significant strokes with his ball-striking over the past season but has become an above-average scrambler as well.
Being a sucker for Tony Finau’s outright price will not cease for me until the Salt Lake native finally breaks through on TOUR. We need not spell out the details of his current form in the ’20-’21 season, as most will simply not care until he gets the job done and ships a tournament. I have always been of the ilk that when Big Tone finally gets it done that it will be at a premier event, so why not here in the same fashion that Rickie Fowler won in 2015 while being deemed the best player in the world to have not won a major? In my opinion, we are also getting a slight inflation here at 33-1 to what his true outright number should be.
Talked about too often is the fact that Jon Rahm does not yet have a major championship on his otherwise sensational resume through this point in his career. Although THE PLAYERS is not one of the big four, a win here feels right for a guy like Rahm, who never goes too long between wins on TOUR. With five top-five finishes in his previous seven starts, he flirted with the winner’s circle at both The Farmers and The Genesis and comes into Sawgrass a bit under the radar compared to the other top dogs, as his best finish here was T12 last time out in 2019.
The Spaniard’s game fits any course, and I look for him to reverse a streak of three straight tourneys losing strokes with his flat stick. His tee ball and approach will always be near the top of the field, so if he can get the putter working in his favor, I expect him to be holding the golden trophy on late Sunday afternoon.
My Card
Sam Burns Top 10 (+1200)
Joaquin Niemann Outright (+7500)
Tony Finau Outright (+3300)
Jon Rahm Outright (+1700)