NHL Betting Guide: Friday 3/12/21

Thursday was a high-scoring night in the NHL, with eight of the 10 games going over their respective totals. We’re breaking down a couple of games in the NHL West Division in today’s betting guide while paying close attention to the over trend.

Here are a few plays from our daily projections!

Anaheim Ducks vs. San Jose Sharks

Ducks moneyline (-102): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Ducks +1.5 (-260): 4-Star Rating out of 5
Over 5.5 (-118): 1-Star Rating out of 5

There won’t be much more than pride on the line when the Anaheim Ducks host the San Jose Sharks on Friday night. Neither team has serious playoff aspirations, as they sit seventh and eighth, respectively, in the NHL West Division.

The Sharks come into this one having won two of their last five, but the problem is they appear to be overachieving relative to their metrics. San Jose has posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in four of those five games. They’ve been out-possessed in all five games and out-shot and given up 12 or more high-danger opportunities in four of five.

That should make things easy for the Ducks, who are trending up with their offensive metrics. Anaheim has managed 11 or more high-danger chances in six of their last eight games and is averaging 30.1 shots over that span. The Ducks are also improving possession posting above-average Corsi percentages in three of five.

Their output is starting to increase with the production metrics, as the Ducks have managed four or more goals per game in three of their last six.

One trend worth noting is the Sharks tend to go to extra time as visitors. Six of 14 games have needed overtime or a shootout, including four of their last six.

Just because these are two of the worst teams in the league doesn’t mean there aren’t positions to exploit in the betting market. Based on our projections, the Ducks are the side to be on. There’s substantial value in backing them on the puckline and moneyline, which are four- and three-star plays, respectively. There’s also value in backing the over, which is rated as a one-star play.

Minnesota Wild vs. Arizona Coyotes

Over 5.5 (+112):1-Star Rating out of 5

The Minnesota Wild and Arizona Coyotes meet for the first of three straight games tonight in Minnesota.

Arizona has had some piss-poor defensive efforts recently. Opponents have managed double-digit high-danger attempts in nine straight and are averaging 13.6 opportunities a game. Scoring chances and shots are equally abundant, with the Yotes giving up an average of 33.2 scoring chances and 35.2 shots over the nine-game sample.

That makes it even easier for the Wild, who are putting up some impressive offensive metrics. Minnesota has put up at least 10 high-danger chances in eight of their last nine and managed at least 30 shots on goal in six of nine. That has led to increased output, with Minny scoring four or more goals in five of those nine games.

Defensively, the Wild have been giving up more chances against. Opponents have managed above-average scoring chances and high-danger attempts in four of the Wild’s last six games. Expect Arizona to take advantage of those defensive lapses.

Goals should flow pretty naturally tonight as they did last week when both games went over the total. Based on our projections, we should expect more of the same. The over 5.5 is rated as a one-star play.