The Most Important Matchups and Best Bets for Friday’s NBA Slate

12.03.2021 22:18

RotoExperts

The NBA is following up a massive 11-game slate on Thursday with another seven games on Friday. The action gets underway a bit later than usual – the first games don’t tip off until 8 p.m. ET – and the Pacers vs. the Lakers wraps up the slate with a 10:30 p.m. ET tip.

One thing that jumps out on today’s slate is the spread in the game between the Jazz and Rockets. The Rockets are extremely shorthanded at the moment, and the Jazz have ballooned to massive 17-point favorites. Is that a number they can cover or is it too high?

Let’s dive in.

KEY MATCHUPS

You simply don’t see 17-point favorites every day. That is so many points for an NBA game, and it’s much more common when a traditional blue blood is playing a mid-major in college basketball. Every NBA player is good – even the last guy on the bench for the worst team in the league – so it’s just not common to see spreads this high.

The highest spread we’ve seen previously this season is 15.5 points, and that was a game between the Bucks and Pistons. The Bucks ultimately won that game by 10 points, but that obviously wasn’t enough to cover the spread.

Historically, favorites of at least 15 points have posted a record of 164-175-10 against the spread dating back to 2005. That results in a return on investment of -5.9%. That means that a $100 bettor would be down more than -$2,000 if they bet every favorite of at least 15 points over that time frame.

That doesn’t mean that the Jazz can’t cover today, but it does mean we should be somewhat cautious. After all, head coaches play the game to win, not cover, so don’t be surprised if Quin Snyder takes his foot off the gas in the fourth quarter.

That said, this Rockets squad looks more like a G-League roster than an NBA roster at this point. Eric Gordon has already been ruled out, and Victor Oladipo is expected to rest on the second leg of a back-to-back. Christian Wood and Danuel House are also expected to remain sidelined, while P.J. Tucker is no longer with the team as they explore potential trade and buy-out situations. Even John Wall is questionable, which doesn’t leave the team with a ton of available bodies.

The Rockets lost by 20 points to the Kings yesterday, and that was with Oladipo and Gordon in the lineup. Make no mistake about it – this game could definitely get ugly in a hurry.

The sharps and squares appear to have different opinions on this contest, but this isn’t the type of sharps vs. squares battle we typically see. The squares are actually taking the underdog – 79% of the spread bets have landed on the Rockets – but the sharps are pounding the Jazz. Utah has received 98% of the spread dollars, which suggests that all of the big bets are landing on the Jazz.

I personally don’t feel comfortable taking such a large favorite, but I would rather side with Utah than this current Rockets’ squad if I was forced to make a pick.

LINE MOVEMENT

There has already been some significant line movement on today’s slate.

The Jazz have seen the largest line move on the slate – they initially opened as 13.5-point favorites – but the Spurs have also seen some line movement in their favor. They’ve moved to -7.5 vs. the Magic after opening at -6.5.

The injury report is the big reason for the line movement. The Magic have already ruled out Aaron Gordon and Terrence Ross for this contest, while Evan Fournier and James Ennis remain out of the lineup. That leaves the Magic largely devoid of playmakers, which is an issue they’ve dealt with all season.