NL Central Preview Odds and Analysis
The National League Center Division is one of the most storied divisions in baseball. Last season, four of the five teams in the division, the Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs and Reds, all reached the postseason.
Here is a preview of how the teams stack up, with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Chicago Cubs – Wins 78.5
Division winners last season, with a 34-26 record, the Chicago Cubs are a new-look team heading into the 2021 season. Losing starting pitchers Yu Darvish to the Padres and Jon Lester to the Nationals, a team ranked 13th in K/9 for the season, will depend on a projected starting rotation of Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, Zach Davies, Alec Mills and Trevor Williams. Keep an eye on closer Craig Kimbrel and a potential bounce back in 2021. In 2020, he pitched 15.1 innings with a 5.28 ERA and two saves.
The return of Arrieta should give the rotation veteran presence and familiarity with the nuances of pitching at Wrigley Field. A member of the Philadelphia Phillies for the 2020 season, Arrieta started nine games, posting a 5.08 ERA and a 16.8% K rate, with a 4-4 record.
It appears the Cubs have replaced the absence of Kyle Schwarber with former Los Angeles Dodgers standout Joc Pederson in the outfield. Spending his entire six-year career with the Dodgers, Pederson is a .230 hitter with 130 home runs. He played in 43 games for the Dodgers last season, hitting .190 with seven home runs.
Led behind fixtures Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez, the Cubs look primed to make another run at the postseason. If the rotation can stay healthy and the lineup can supply run support, look for this team to reach the over on their win total.
Cincinnati Reds – Wins 81.5
The 2020 Cincinnati Reds rotation terrorized opposing batters. They led the league in K/9 with 11.01—almost a full strikeout better than the Cleveland Indians, who ranked second.
However, most of their success can be attributed to National League Cy Young award winner Trevor Bauer, who posted a 5-4 record with a league-leading 1.73 ERA and 12.3 K/9. Their rotation stays primarily intact going into the 2021 season. Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo vying for the top spot, with Michael Lorenzen projected to slot into the five spot in the rotation, behind Wade Miley and Tyler Mahle. Playing in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark will be a challenge for the rotation and look for games to quickly get out of hand and depend on support from the bullpen. Look for Amir Garrett and newcomer Sean Doolittle to primarily manage closing duties for the team.
Surprisingly, the projected starting rotation also stays unchanged from the 2020 season. Look for great production from middle infielders Mike Moustakas and Eugenio Suarez. Veterans Joey Votto and Nick Castellanos continue to supply consistent run support as top-of-the-lineup fixtures. In 54 games for the team, Votto batted .226 with 11 home runs.
With team chemistry likely to continue for the Reds, look for an over for their win total this season.
Milwaukee Brewers – Wins 82
Making the postseason with a 29-31 record, the Brewer snuck in as an eighth seed and made a quick exit by the eventual World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers’ hands.
A projected starting rotation of Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, Josh Lindblom, Adrian Houser and Brett Anderson should focus primarily on Woodruff. Woodruff, the likely ace for the Brewers, posted a 3-5 record, starting in 13 games and recorded an 11.12 K/9 and 3.05 ERA.
The team should benefit from the addition of outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. and second baseman Kolten Wong, giving them more batting power in an already stacked lineup featuring Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain.
A member of the Red Sox since 2013, Bradley Jr. is a career .239 hitter with 98 home runs. Last season, he played 55 games, batting a career-high .283 with seven home runs. His addition to the lineup makes the Brewers one of two teams, with all three outfielders awarded a Gold Glove in their career.
Pitching may seem a primary concern for the Brewers, and while the lineup features some of the best bats in the league, look for the Brew Crew to trend toward the under for their win total.
Pittsburgh Pirates – Wins 58.5
The Pirates continue their rebuild strategy going into the 2021 season. Posting a 19-41 record for the 2020 season, the team had the worst record in the majors.
Without arguably the top three pitchers in their rotation, Trevor Williams, Chris Archer and Jameson Taillon, the Pirates will depend on a projected rotation of Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl, Tyler Anderson, Mitch Keller and Trevor Cahill. Out of the five players, Keller had the best season, posting a 2.91 ERA in five starts with a 1-1 record and a 6.65 K/9.
Look for production in the lineup to primarily come from batters, Colin Moran and Gregory Polanco. Moran, in 200 plate appearances, batted .247 with 10 home runs. Polanco, in 174 plate appearances, batted .214 with seven home runs.
An interesting wrinkle to the lineup comes from non-roster invite Todd Frazier. The one-time home run derby champion split time between the New York Mets and Texas Rangers during the 2020 season. A career .242 hitter with 218 home runs, Frazier should add power to the lineup if he makes the team. The nine-year veteran should compete for a spot as the everyday third baseman.
The pathways to a 59-win season seem unlikely and look for the team to look forward to next season.
St. Louis Cardinals – Wins 86
The Cardinals, coming off a 30-28 record during the 2020 season, have improved their lineup with third baseman Nolan Arenado.
A rotation led by Jack Flaherty, who in 2020 posted a 4-3 record, with a 10.93 K/9 and a 4.91 ERA, should also see great outings from veteran Adam Wainwright, Kwang Hyun Kim, Carols Martinez and Miles Mikolas. Daniel Ponce de Leon should also see time in the starting rotation and the team will welcome back Jordan Hicks, who missed the 2020 season due to Tommy John surgery. Last playing in 2019, Hicks is known as a flamethrower, with a four-seam fastball often breaking the 100 MPH mark.
Alongside, Arenado, the Cardinals feature a lineup of Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina and Paul DeJong, all of whom hit above .250 last season, supplying plenty of run support for the rotation. Look for veteran Matt Carpenter to also slot into the lineup. The lefty batted .186 with four home runs in 169 plate appearances last season.
With stellar pitching and run support from the lineup, look for the Cardinals to be contenders for the World Series crown, current +2200 to win it all on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Division Winner: St. Louis Cardinals