NBA Betting Guide for 3/15/21: 3 Sides the Data and Public Are Backing in Rematches
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight’s games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Sacramento Kings at Charlotte Hornets
The Sacramento Kings (24th in our power rankings) and Charlotte Hornets (21st) aren’t strong squads overall. The Kings are just 15-23, but I guess at least the Hornets are 19-18 to be above .500. Either way, our algorithm sees them both as below-average teams.
But it is taking a pretty clear side, and that’s on the Hornets, who won this very matchup 127-126 on February 28th.
For tonight, our algorithm is rating the Charlotte moneyline (-154) as a three-star recommendation out of five and Charlotte -3.0 as a one-star recommendation out of five. Based on each team’s nERD (44.6 for the Hornets and 37.4 for the Kings — nERD indicates expected winning percentage over a full season), the Hornets have an expected point differential of -1.63. The Kings’ number is -3.78.
So that’s part of why our algorithm likes them outright. They are 68.8% likely to win, but the moneyline of -154 implies just 60.6% odds.
The public is also on the Hornets: 76% of the tickets and 80% of the money is on the Hornets’ moneyline, per oddsFire.
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks
We’re seeing two-star recommendations across the board in this game with the under (228.0), the Dallas Mavericks‘ spread (+1.5), and the Mavericks’ moneyline (+106).
Our algorithm actually sees Dallas winning outright 53.9% of the time despite ranking the Los Angeles Clippers 4th in our power rankings (while the Mavs are 12th). According to the 25 most similar games to this one historically (per our database), teams representing the Mavericks have won 52.0% of them and covered the spread in 56.0% of them. So it’s tight, but the moneyline is on our side at +106.
For what it’s worth, Dallas beat the Clippers 124-73 back on December 27th — though Kawhi Leonard did not play.
Our algorithm also views the under as 61.1% likely to hit, good for an expected return of 16.7%. The median score in this game is coming out at just 222.0.
The public is a little heavier on the Clippers’ spread (62% of the bets and 70% of the money), but the moneyline is tighter, and the Mavericks are getting roughly equal love (55% of the tickets and 51% of the money).
As usual, the public is on the over at about an 80% clip. It’s worth noting that, although the Clippers have gone over in 60.0% of their games, Dallas has done it in just 45.9% of theirs. Los Angeles also just played yesterday and lost to the New Orleans Pelicans by 20.
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors
The Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors will play for the third time this season. On January 18th, Golden State surged back in the fourth quarter to win their first matchup 115-113, and then the Lakers — without Anthony Davis — handled business with a 117-91 rout on February 28th.
The Warriors earned a big win yesterday with a 131-119 victory over the Utah Jazz, but that does mean they’re on a back-to-back. The Lakers are the only team on the slate with two days of rest.
Our algorithm is giving their moneyline (-138) a four-star rating out of five and the spread (Lakers -2.5) a two-star rating of its own. We see the Lakers winning this game 71.3% of the time, better than their odds-implied number of 58.0%.
The Lakers are also receiving 60% of the tickets and 67% of the money on the moneyline bets at FanDuel Sportsbook. They’re also getting 70% or more of the bets and tickets on the spread.