NHL Betting Guide for March 24th
It’s been a weird schedule in the NHL this week. We started the week with nine games on Monday, followed by five on Tuesday and five more tonight but two of those games are afternoon contests. The Calgary Flames take on the Ottawa Senators at 5 pm EDT, and puck drops on the Anaheim Ducks […]
The post NHL Betting Guide for March 24th first appeared on SportsGrid.It’s been a weird schedule in the NHL this week. We started the week with nine games on Monday, followed by five on Tuesday and five more tonight but two of those games are afternoon contests. The Calgary Flames take on the Ottawa Senators at 5 pm EDT, and puck drops on the Anaheim Ducks and Minnesota Wild just half an hour later at 5:30 EDT. Make sure you’re considering that before placing your wagers.
Here are the plays we’re looking at today!
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Buffalo Sabres, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Penguins -270, Sabres +220
Spread: Penguins -1.5 (-114), Sabres +1.5 (-105)
Total: O5.5 -134
Odds to Win Stanley Cup: Penguins +2000|Sabres +25000
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Buffalo Sabres News, Analysis, and Picks
I’m not sure what the Buffalo Sabres plan is, but I’m pretty sure it’s not working. Whatever lens you look through, the Sabres are among the league’s worst. They have the fewest wins and points, are tied for the worst goal differential, and are among the worst teams from an advanced metrics perspective.
There’s no end in sight for the Sabres either. They’ve allowed at least three goals in 14 straight games while scoring three or more just four times. Buffalo has posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in 13 of those 14 games.
If we’re looking for a silver lining, the Sabres are improving their defensive efforts. Opponents have been limited to seven or fewer high-danger chances and 24 scoring opportunities in three of their last six games. That has not yet translated to fewer goals, so the Sabres should expect some progression from a goals-against perspective.
The Pittsburgh Penguins have been playing a more disciplined system this season. Their core players are aging, and rather than holding on to what was working in years past; they’ve adapted to a more defensive brand of hockey.
Pittsburgh ranks in the top 10 in scoring chances against, and over their recent sample have decreased high-danger opportunities against. The Pens have limited opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances in six of their last seven, for an average of 8.0 a game. Their efforts have resulted in fewer goals against, as they have allowed an average of 1.57 goals per game, with only five of the 11 goals coming from high-danger areas.
Both teams come into this one on improved defensive metrics, which has led to some pretty pronounced under trends. Buffalo has gone over the total just once in their last five, and the Penguins have stayed under in six straight. With plus-money on the under, we’re betting on those trends to continue.
Minnesota Wild vs. Anaheim Ducks, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Wild -270, Ducks +220
Spread: Wild -1.5 (+106), Ducks +1.5 (-128)
Total: O5.5 -105
Odds to Win Stanley Cup: Wild +1800|Ducks +25000
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!
Minnesota Wild vs. Anaheim Ducks News, Analysis, and Picks
We’re taking a deeper dive into one of the aforementioned afternoon contests to find value in a steep underdog.
Minnesota appears to be entering a correction phase after overachieving offensively for 15 games. During the span, the Wild were averaging 30.7 shots per game and scoring on 12.2% of those shots. Over their last three games, shots are down to 24.7, and they’re scoring on only 4.1% of shots. High-danger and scoring chances are also tumbling, dropping to 9.0 and 19.7, respectively, and the Wild have scored only three goals over their last three games. The Wild could have a hard time scoring goals as their production and output metrics start to balance out.
It’s hard to be as inefficient as the Ducks have been this season. That’s particularly true over their last seven contests in which their PDO has sunk to .915. Over the first five games of this sample, the Ducks were terrible defensively. Opponents were averaging 14.6 high-danger opportunities and 31.8 scoring opportunities on 31.8 shots. Anaheim has started to turn the corner, limiting their last two opponents to a cumulative 53 shots, 46 scoring chances, and 18 high-danger opportunities. Signs that the Ducks should start to see their save percentage, and PDO, start to increase.
These teams appear to be moving in opposite directions on the progression/regression spectrum. The Wild appear due for decreased output while the Ducks are trending upwards. Anaheim is improving their metrics, is due for progression, and is a good team to buy low on. We’re backing the Ducks as +220 underdogs.