The Most Important Matchups and Best Bets for Thursday’s NBA Slate

25.03.2021 21:33

RotoExperts

There has already been a flurry of activity in advance of Thursday’s 3 p.m. ET trade deadline, and expect a few more deals still to come. Kyle Lowry is the big piece that the top contenders are chasing – specifically the Lakers, 76ers, and Heat – but some other names could be on the move as well.

When the dust finally settles, we’ll still have a five-game slate on tap tonight. The action gets underway with a pair of contests starting at 7:30 p.m. ET, and the final two games of the evening tip-off at 10 p.m. ET.

The Warriors will be one of the last teams to take the floor tonight, and they’re going to be an interesting team over the second half of the season. They’re sitting in 10th place in the Western Conference, which would technically qualify them for the new play-in tournament. That said, they know they’re not real contenders this season.

With that in mind, head coach Steve Kerr said he expects talented rookie James Wiseman to start for the rest of the season. That’s the right move for the Warriors’ long-term outlook, but how will it affect them Thursday vs. the Kings?

Let’s dive in.

KEY MATCHUPS

Wiseman was selected second overall in last year’s draft, and he is oozing with potential. He has elite athleticism, and he’s also displayed the potential to shoot the ball from the perimeter. However, he is extremely raw. He wasn’t able to play his freshman season of college after the NCAA determined him ineligible, and he’s also missed a chunk of games this season due to an injury.

Overall, there have been growing pains for Wiseman when he’s been on the court. The Warriors’ Net Rating has decreased by -11.7 points per 100 possessions in that situation, which puts him in just the eighth percentile for qualified players this season (per Cleaning the Glass). The team has been much better with Kevon Looney in the lineup, which is why Wiseman lost his starting spot to begin with.

Ultimately, the Warriors have been outscored by -8.0 points per 100 possessions with Wiseman on the floor this season.

Of course, Steph Curry being out of the lineup isn’t going to help matters. The two-time MVP has had a fantastic season for the Warriors, and he’s the biggest reason why they’ve managed to stay above water without Klay Thompson. The Warriors have averaged a ridiculous +17.6 additional points per 100 possessions with Curry on the court this season, and they’ve also increased their effective field goal percentage (eFG%) by +8.1%. Both marks put Curry in the 100th percentile.

While chasing the No. 10 spot in the West may not be very important for the Warriors, it is the sole focus for the Kings. They are tired of rebuilding, which is a big reason why they swung a trade for Delon Wright on Thursday. Wright won’t be able to make his debut tonight, but that move reflects the team’s attitude. They are playing for the present, even if they’re not going to make much noise in the playoffs.

The betting activity also points to the Kings being the correct side. They’ve received just 49% of the spread bets in this matchup, but those bets have accounted for 93% of the spread dollars. A discrepancy that large is usually a good indicator that the sharps are in on the Kings. I like their chances of covering the number on Thursday.

LINE MOVEMENT

There has already been some significant line movement on today’s slate.

The game between the Blazers and Heat has featured the largest movement. The Heat were initially listed as 4.5-point home favorites, but they’re down to just -2.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Heat’s injury situation is the likely reason for the move. Goran Dragic is questionable after missing the past two games, and Jimmy Butler is also questionable due to an illness. Most of the money in this contest is coming in on the Blazers, so the books have moved the line to compensate.