2021 NFL Draft Round 2 Betting: Best Bets and Longshot Odds

2021 NFL Draft Round 2 Betting: Best Bets and Longshot Odds

The opening night of the NFL Draft lived up to expectations as we saw wild swings in betting market odds between Trey Lance and Mac Jones — Aaron Rodgers trade rumors — the Patriots land their next potential franchise QB — and David Gettleman to sharply trade down only to reach on a fringe impact wide receiver.

While Day 2 of the NFL Draft may not produce the same brand value in terms of names, there are still plenty of opportunities to get some action down thanks to Round 2 betting markets posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

I am not a college football expert or draft aficionado, but I am particularly good at navigating data to find potential edges in markets.

1. 1. Team Mock Draft / Needs Assessment from Grinding the Mocks filtered for expert mock drafts done in the last two months.

1. 1. Referenced first round draft selections to adjust needs. Since the Steelers drafted Najee Harris in the first round, that is no longer a need.

1. 1. Bumped probabilities against Fanduel Sportsbook odds.

Fanduel Sportsbook Round 2 Best Bets

Washington Football Team to Draft a QB +340 / Pittsburgh Steelers to Draft a QB +750

Both of these respective teams have short-term solutions at the quarterback position in Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ben Roethlisberger but have no long-term plan. Stanford QB Davis Mills is projected as a late second-round pick with an EDP rank of 55th overall, which is right in range for the Football Team (Pick 51) and Steelers (Pick 55). On top of that, many teams who have drafted ahead of them have already resolved their QB needs or draft too high in the second round to reach on a prospect.

Kyle Trask (EDP 66th) is another late 2nd / early 3rd candidate that could fit with either team. Additionally, 45 percent of expert mocks over the last two months have WFT going QB here — which makes +340 a nice number. While only 11 percent of them have the Steelers drafting a QB, that is because 22 percent had them going after their RB need, which was resolved by Najee Harris.

Yes, Pittsburgh did sign Mason Rudolph to a one-year extension, but that doesn’t preclude them from drafting another prospect. While OL is still the favorite, the price is nice on the Steelers drafting a QB.

Chicago Bears +430 to Draft a WR

There was some smoke on the Bears drafting a wide receiver in the first round, but they made their move and traded up to get their next franchise QB in Justin Fields. The Bears have tried to address pass-catching depth in recent drafts, including Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney but are still candidates to find Allen Robinson and Justin Fields additional help. The second round features three projected picks: Terrance Marshall, Rondale Moore, and Dyami Brown — and a whopping 60 percent of expert mocks have them going with a wide receiver. Moore and Brown should both be on the board when the Bears get on the clock.

Jacksonville Jaguars +750 to Draft a CB

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been tied to Penn State TE Pat Freiermuth, who #TheMath sees as a possible value at TE +750, but it seems increasingly less likely that they go offense with their first three picks of the draft. Instead, I like the value on drafting a cornerback at +750. There are 5 CBs with second-round grades, and when they passed on Greg Newsome, it’s likely that they felt better about someone like Asante Samuel at Pick 33 than they did Travis Etienne falling out of the first round.

This pick carries some risk as it’s a prime one to be traded, but there are five CBs with second-round grades in this class.

Full Card of Round 2 Best Bets

Fanduel Sportsbook Round 2 Longshot Bets (+1000 or Greater)

The next set of selections are unlikely to produce many winners; however, even a single winner can make it a profitable card. For the Buffalo Bills, we have longshot options for a linebacker and wide receiver.  Fourteen percent of mocks tie them to Jabril Cox, making that a value with a strong margin of error.

At the same position, Jeremy Owusu-Koramoah and Azeez Ojulari are likely LB candidates to be targeted towards the top end of the draft board. Three other LBs are potential second-round selections. We see some longshot value in Cincinnati at the top end if they don’t go with the chalk OL selection and with both Seattle (15-20 percent of mocks / +1000 odds) and the LA Chargers (+1600 odds) going LB.

Speaking of LA, they are at least in range to consider #3 overall RB Javonte Williams, who has an EDP of pick 42. The Chargers are most likely going CB or S with this selection, but that has already been priced into the betting markets. If he gets past Denver at Pick 40, he’s likely to still be there when the Chargers are on the clock and at +3400 for a team that already upgraded their OL during free agency.

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Full Card of Round 2 Longshot Bets (Oprah Sprinkles)