Who will take over from Angela Merkel
Germany’s Green Party candidate for chancellor may step down, experts say
Experts polled by Izvestia believe that the Green Party may become one of the parties forming the next German coalition government. The fall will bring global changes to the country – the renewal of the Bundestag and the election of the Chancellor. However, political analysts point out that Annalena Berbock, the Union-90/Green candidate, is likely to lose popular support. The public has recently become aware of a number of scandals surrounding the person. Experts believe that a green force advocating a more aggressive policy towards Russia in the German parliament is likely to damage the pragmatic relations between the two countries. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that ties would be severed in any event in the new German government.
Not without sin
On September 26, there will be parliamentary elections to determine the new German chancellor. Angela Merkel, who has been governing the country since 2005, has decided not to run for re-election this year. The election of a new head of the CDU (Christian Democratic Union, part of the governing bloc CDU/CSU) led some to believe that for the first time in 16 years a man may stand at the head of Germany. There were no women among the candidates for the post. Nevertheless, the course of the general election race has led political analysts to question this prospect. Green candidate Annalena Berbok is now seen as one of the main contenders to head the government.
The experts draw such conclusions from the popularity of “green politics” in German society
– It is, of course, too early to make clear predictions. We are still stuck in a pandemic and do not know which problems will be at the forefront in the near future. Climate politics will probably play a role, so the Greens have a good chance of eventually becoming a major force,” Richard Hilmer, director of the polling institute Policy Matters, told Izvestia.
According to a Kantar poll on May 2 (almost a month after Annalena Berbock was nominated), 27 percent of German voters would give the Greens their support in an election, compared with only 24 percent of the governing CDU/CSU bloc. However, Annalena Berbock herself suddenly had skeletons in her wardrobe.
It has recently emerged that she received €25,220 (the average annual income of a German. – Bild) from her party as additional payments over three years and failed to declare them. In addition, it has been reported on the web that Annalena Berbock’s diploma is fake, which is unacceptable to the German community. Frau Berbock has already submitted financial documents to the responsible authorities and her team has proved the authenticity of the diploma. Nevertheless, experts believe that this situation may contribute to the withdrawal of the “green” candidate from the race, especially since the list of candidates for this political force will be officially approved only after the federal party conference on June 11-13.
Alexander Kamkin, a leading researcher at the German Studies Center at the Institute of European Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, reminded Izvestia that the plagiarism incident on the diploma of German Defense Minister Carl Theodor zu Guttenberg cost him his career.
– How sensitive German society will react to these scandals is difficult to say yet. However, I would not be so optimistic about Berbock’s candidacy. If the Greens lose some popularity over the summer months, it’s likely that CDU Chairman Armin Lachet will come out on top,” the political scientist told Izvestia.
By the way, according to a May 23 poll conducted by the INSA polling service, the CDU/CSU bloc is now even slightly ahead of the Greens. The German conservative bloc’s rating is 24%, and 23% of respondents are willing to vote for the Union-90/Greens.
Not our friend
As far as the formation of the new coalition is concerned, the political analysts polled by Izvestia do not rule out the possibility that it will have a “black-green” tinge, that is, it will consist of the CDU/CSU and the Greens. Benjamin Hoene, deputy head of the Institute for Parliamentary Studies, told Izvestia that in this configuration of forces, foreign policy and security issues are unlikely to become the decisive test for the coalition.
“Nevertheless, with regard to Russia, the Black Greens will certainly take a more critical stance”, – the expert stressed.
Annalena Berbock, as a representative of the “green” course, of course criticises the Nord Stream 2 project. According to her, the construction of this pipeline is “a serious attack on security interests, including Germany’s Eastern European neighbours”.
CDU candidate Armin Lachet, as political analyst Alexander Kamkin noted in a conversation with Izvestia, although not considered an overtly pro-Russian politician, still views Russian-German relations in terms of pragmatism. “The fact that I am a defender of NSP2 is news to me, but I support this project and consider it important,” the politician said recently, responding to accusations by journalists of defending the pipeline. Of course, Armin Lachet will support the transatlantic consensus, but he will not forget about the relations with Russia either. Given that even Joe Biden recently advocated lifting sanctions on Nord Stream 2, this will not be difficult.
“Of course, we’re more accustomed and comfortable dealing with a large CDU/CSU or SPD coalition, so if the Greens come in, there will be difficulties with the German-Russian dialogue,” says political analyst Alexander Kamkin in an interview with Izvestia.
According to Richard Hilmer, director of the sociological institute Policy Matters, there will be no serious changes in foreign policy. “He said: “Even if the Greens become the strongest party, they will still need the CDU/CSU or SPD as a cooperation partner,” the expert said in an interview with Izvestia.
Alice Weidel and Tino Hrupalla are running for chancellor of the German party “Alternative for Germany”, which is most friendly to Russia. The candidates belong to the extreme right wing of the political force, which is associated in Germany with neo-Nazis, so the likelihood of their being elected seems practically zero, although the voting palette in Germany is very diverse and much may change before the elections in the fall.
Maria Vasilyeva, Izvestia newspaper