How Mets Could Take Advantage of Cubs Seller Status – Part 2

In part one of this series, we looked at how the Mets can avoid a second-half collapse- partially by scavenging players from the already-collapsed Chicago Cubs. Potential trade targets examined in that article included Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Kris Bryant, and Craig Kimbrel.

For this part of the series, we will look at some more Cubs players and determine how well they could potentially fit with the Mets.

One important deal has been made since my first part of this series: Joc Pederson’s trade to the Braves.

This trade was widely unexpected by baseball fans and serves as the first domino to fall in what could be an all-time fire sale in Chicago this summer. Furthermore, the Pederson trade cements the Braves’ willingness to buy in a still-wide-open division, even without superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. for the rest of the season.

The Mets’ failure to seize opportunities to run away with the division so far has allowed an underperforming team like the Braves to still fancy themselves, contenders.

However, as far as Mets trade targets are concerned, the lack of Pederson’s continued availability on the market does not hurt too much. The Mets had little need for yet another lefty bat who plays a mediocre corner outfield. With that said, let’s examine some players that may fit their needs a bit better.

Andrew Chafin; RP

Age: 31

2021 WAR: 1.6

Contract Status: $5.25M mutual option for 2022 or $500k buyout after 2021

Operating entirely under the radar, Chafin has put together a sneakily effective season and career as a relief pitcher. His 1.42 ERA this season is likely to regress to his career mean, especially when considering his current FIP of 2.61 and the fact that he has never put together a full season below a 2.76 ERA in his seven previous campaigns.

However, the difference between Chafin’s current ERA and FIP likely points to him being a beneficiary of good defense with the Cubs, something the 2021 Mets have been surprisingly adept at. Therefore, it is possible he does not regress too much.

His option for 2022 gives the club another possible year of control if he proves effective in his few months in New York, with little risk if he does not. Additionally, it is unlikely the Cubs demand as much for Chafin as for their other top reliever, Craig Kimbrel, this July.

Fit: B+

Patrick Wisdom; 3B, 1B

Age: 29

2021 WAR: 1.4

Contract Status: Earliest arbitration eligible in 2024, earliest FA eligible in 2027

A potential trade here would not make sense for either team. There would simply be no Wisdom in the Cubs trading perhaps their best controllable player this year, or in the Mets trading for a corner infielder who presents no obvious upgrade over their current options.

Fit: F

Kyle Hendricks; SP

Age: 31

2021 WAR: 1.0

Contract Status: Signed through 2023, vesting option for 2024 will not vest

Hendricks has been so effective for the Cubs in his eight-year career that they seem to have prioritized acquiring and developing soft-throwing workhorses organization-wide. Amid what very well may be the worst season of his career, Hendricks has still been effective, sporting a good-if-not-great 3.77 ERA while averaging almost six innings per start in 18 games this season.

Hendricks’ fit with the Mets depends almost entirely on one thing: the Cubs’ willingness to part with him. It seems that Chicago is headed for a deep rebuild, but perhaps they will choose to simply retool, in which case a solid veteran starter can be of use in the next two to three years. If the Mets are going to need to get involved in a bidding war for Hendricks with other buying teams at the deadline, it would be unwise for them to make a move.

However, there also exists the option that the Cubs will actively shop Hendricks, not wanting to eat his $14 million salary in each of the next two and a half seasons if they believe they will not be competitive in that time frame anyway. If the Cubs are willing to part with Hendricks in exchange for the Mets taking on his salary and perhaps a mid-level prospect or two, this could be a very real fit for both clubs.

Locked into two more seasons after this one at a reasonable rate, taking on the salary of a veteran pitcher in a down season on the wrong side of thirty could prove risky in most cases. However, Hendricks is not most cases. His slow-velocity, control-oriented approach makes him a prime candidate for a generous, Colon-esque, aging curve.

With question marks behind deGrom and Walker in the rotation for next year, if Hendricks can be had without giving up too much, the Mets should go get him.

Fit: B+

Ryan Tepera; RP

Age: 33

2021 WAR: 0.7

Contract Status: Free agent after 2021 season

Dan Winkler; RP

Age: 31

2021 WAR: 0.8

Contract Status: Free agent after 2021 season

Tepera and Winkler are two more guys who could make sense to replenish the Mets’ pitching ranks. Between bullpen games and inconsistency from back-end starters, the bullpen was taxed quite a bit in the first half of the season. We saw this take an effect on pitchers Trevor May and Miguel Castro right before our eyes, and it is fair to wonder whether another solid reliever could benefit everyone.

The Cubs would be unlikely to demand much for Tepera, but he has put together a solid first half, with a 3.20 ERA and 3.07 FIP. Those numbers are each slightly below career norms of 3.60 and 4.14, respectively, but not nearly enough to assume imminent regression.

Much of what was said about Chafin earlier can be repeated for Winkler: the career-best ERA (2.32), a higher FIP that suggests possible regression (4.56), and the benefit of probably requiring a lesser price than Craig Kimbrel due to his lack of track record.

Both Winkler and Tepera would serve as one-year rentals, so the Cubs would be unlikely to demand much in the way of prospect capital in either case.

The bullpen has been an area of strength for the Mets this year, preventing this fit grade from going any higher. However, dealing a mid-level prospect to stabilize the bullpen could make sense here.

Fit: B

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