Surprisingly important series against Mariners up next
If you had said at the beginning of Spring Training that the Seattle Mariners are right on the A’s heels, most would assume that Oakland hadn’t met expectations and wasn't near the division lead as they are now. Seattle is only 3 games behind Oakland at 51-44, though, with just less than two weeks remaining before the Trade Deadline and a critical four-game series about to begin. The Mariners are buyers.
They’ve hovered around .500 for most of the year, falling to their lowest in the standings at 31-35 around a month ago on June 12th, sitting at fourth place in the AL West. Fangraphs gave the team only a 0.2% chance at making the playoffs at that time. Since then, however, the team has gone 16-9 to pass the Angels in the standings and put themselves in position to pass the A’s if they sweep Oakland. Fangrahs still only gives the team a 4.5% chance to make the playoffs, oddly worse odds than the 46-48 Angels (6.6%), who are 7.5 back of the A’s, but a huge improvement when you look at where they were just a month ago.
How’d they turn it around? The Mariners are almost done with their rebuild, that’s how, as most of their young talent is at or approaching the big leagues. The young players have been hit and miss: top prospect Jarred Kelenic has struggled tremendously in his brief time in the bigs, reigning Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis is injured until August, and second baseman Dylan Moore is having a below-average season. Meanwhile, fellow star prospect Logan Gilbert has been a boon for the rotation, left-handed starter Justin Dunn has been solid and 25-year old catcher/first baseman Luis Torrens has been one of their best hitters since his recall from Tacoma on June 15th, right around the time their hot streak began. Veteran right fielder Mitch Haniger is leading the offense while having a career year and they’ve gotten solid production out of a few of their other veterans like Kyle Seager, J.P. Crawford, Ty France and, when healthy, Jake Fraley.
The offense may currently rank 28th in the league in OPS but are a much better 22nd in runs scored. The team’s overall numbers are also dragged down from a miserable May offensively, when players like Evan White and Sam Haggerty were being given everyday at-bats. Now that they’ve been replaced with productive players like Torrens and a healthy Fraley (who is now actually on the COVID IL, so he will miss this A’s series), the lineup is starting to click, even with Kelenic’s struggles and below-average offensive production out of the catcher spot.
Speaking of the catcher spot, the tandem of the defence-first Tom Murphy and Luis Torrens were recently joined on the active roster by top catching prospect Cal Raleigh, who has been tearing the ball up in Tacoma this season. Mariners manager Scott Servais has let it be known that Raleigh will be slowly worked into the mix, but after snapping an 0-12 streak to start his career with a walk, single and double to help propel the Mariners to victory on Tuesday, he may start to see more playing time with the A’s in town.
It remains unlikely that the Mariners trade one of their top prospects such as Kelenic, fellow outfield prospect Julio Rodriguez or right-hander Emerson Hancock, but the team is reportedly looking to make additions to this group, with reports specifying the team is interested in second base help and starting pitching. There are multiple second base options that would be a clear upgrade over Moore, such as Jonathan Schoop or Asdrubal Cabrera.
And even with the impending returns of young arms Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn, the starting pitching remains a big issue for the Mariners, with their starters ranking 21st in the league in ERA at 4.63. Oddly enough, the Mariners are one of the few teams not in desperate need to add to their bullpen, and could even try to straddle the line between buying and selling by shipping off someone like impending free agent reliever and former Oakland A Kendall Graveman at peak value.
The schedule of a baseball season helps as much as it hurts sometimes. The A’s played the Indians when their top starters were injured, but now Oakland is on its way to a Seattle team that is on fire right now. And to this point the Mariners have split their games against the A's, too. Oakland has a chance to put a huge dent in the Mariners’ playoff chances and encourage the Mariners to sell before the deadline if they sweep or win 3 of 4, while a Mariners sweep or winning the series would likely assure that the Mariners are buyers at the deadline. With both teams chasing the playoffs and in a position to do it, this interdivision matchup promises to be a dogfight to the last out.
First pitch is at 7:10 PM with Sean Manaea (6-6, 3.28 ERA) facing off against Chris Flexen (9-3, 3.35 ERA)