Putinology Is to Russia What Astrology Is to Science
Much writing on Russia stems from a simple proposition: to understand autocracy, you need understand the autocrat. Because autocrats have an outsize influence on politics, it is essential to know what makes the leader tick. A Putin adviser coined the memorable phase “No Putin, No Russia,” but for many Western observers, “Know Putin, Know Russia” might be more appropriate.
As a never-ending stream of profiles suggest, Putinology makes great copy. Who doesn’t love to read and write about Vladimir Putin: the bare-chested man on horseback who brought order to Russia? Yet our obsession with Putin’s personality and background warps our view of the country’s complex politics. Putin governs a country of 146 million stretched across 11 time zones. To get things done, he must motivate a corrupt bureaucracy, keep potential elite challengers at bay, and prevent a well-educated, urbanized public with a declining standard of living from taking to the streets. Reducing Russia’s politics to Putin’s temperament and background is not only an analytic mistake, it also unwittingly plays into the hands of the Kremlin.
Much popular writing on Russia assumes that Putin is motivated by a core set of unique beliefs that are consistent over time, but this assumption is hard to sustain. Some say he is a gambler after Russia annexed Crimea. Others say he is cautious and point to his decision to build massive reserve funds for the state from the oil boom of the early 2000s. Some claim he has a long-term plan to undermine international institutions that he sees as biased against Russian interests. For others, he is an opportunist who responds to circumstances as they arise—as in his decision to broker a deal to remove chemical weapons in Syria when President Barack Obama balked at using force in 2013. Some argue he primarily seeks personal wealth as witnessed by the enormous riches of his oldest friends (who presumably are willing to share the spoils). Others contend that he is at heart a Russian nationalist given his proselytizing of the controversial philosophers Ivan Il’in and Aleksandr Dugin. One of the best biographies of Putin suggests that there are six Putins: the statist, history man, survivalist, outsider, free marketeer, and case officer. Identifying a consistent through line in Putin’s worldview is more difficult than the conventional wisdom suggests. For Putin, a willingness to adapt strategies to circumstances appears to dominate any deep ideological commitments.