If the Bills want the AFC East throne for good, the Patriots are back to make sure it doesn't come easy

Just when it seemed the Pats' reign was done, they're back.

It’s hard to say what’s more surprising: seeing the New England Patriots down last season after owning the NFL for much of the last two decades, or seeing them bounce back the way they have this season under a quarterback not named Tom Brady.

The Patriots’ dynasty crumbling seemed imminent with Brady’s departure and the ensuing 7-9 season. The division rival Buffalo Bills were ripe to take their mantle as leaders of the AFC East, with the young, ascending Josh Allen leading them to a 13-3 record last year — including a sweep of New England and a trip to the conference championship.

Here we are in 2021, however, and it’s like last season never happened. Sure, the Bills are still good and look poised for another playoff run, but the Patriots are back, too, and lead the Bills by half a game entering their matchup Monday night. It’s clear that the division won’t be surrendered easily. If the Bills want it, they’ll have to pry it from Bill Belichick’s cold, firm grasp.

A win Monday night would go a long way towards that. The Bills are favored by 2.5 points at home, and with a 7-4 record, they still hold the shortest odds to win the AFC East (-130 on Tipico Sportsbook). But the 8-4 Patriots aren’t far behind at -105, and they hold home-field advantage the next time these teams meet in Week 16. A Pats win on Monday likely changes who’s favored to capture the AFC East crown.

“They’re in first place. They’ve won this division, what, 17 out of 19 years before last season, something like that. They’ve had a stranglehold on this division for a long time,” Bills coach Sean McDermott told reporters Thursday.

“They’re a good football team, and they’re doing it the right way, they’re playing complimentary football. They’ve got the best coach to ever coach the game, got a great young quarterback, playing really well on defense, special teams as well. So they’re where they’re at for a reason.”

Much of New England’s turnaround this season can been credited to the play of that great, young quarterback, as rookie Mac Jones has exceeded all expectations for his first season. After a year in which Cam Newton struggled to consistently push the ball down the field and put points on the board, the Patriots own the sixth-best scoring average in the NFL at 28.0 points per game.

Their third-down conversion rate is up from 40.9% to 45.4% this season, the difference between being the NFL’s 16th-ranked team last year and fifth this year. They lead the league in scoring percentage (percentage of drives ending in a score) after finishing 23rd last season. Through 12 games, Jones is completing over 70% of his passes and has already doubled Newton’s total of eight passing touchdowns last season.

However, the Patriots’ improvements go a lot deeper than the quarterback position. The offensive line is allowing sacks at a lower rate than a season ago, and the team has made equally drastic strides on the defensive side of the ball, where New England is allowing a league-low 15.8 points per game. 

The Pats’ league-leading 19 interceptions are already more than their 18 total  a season ago, which also led the league. And they’re stingier this year, going from the 27th-ranked red zone defense to the league’s third-best. Quarterbacks put up a collective 89.3 rating on the Pats last year, which wasn’t amazing but looks Marino-like compared to the 70.6 this season, second only to the Bills.

Belichick has always been credited for his ability to stifle young quarterbacks and take away opposing offenses’ strengths. Allen, himself, was once a victim of that, but his last three games against the Pats compare favorably to the first two, and include a sweep of them last season. Overall, he’s 2-3 against the Patriots. How New England’s improvements this season impact  Allen’s play remains to be seen.

“Try to do whatever you can do to try to win that week. That’s really what it comes down to,” Belichick said Friday of his approach to coaching. “Each week’s different. Each week has its own challenges. You look at the way the game matches up, what your opportunities are, what your opponent does and try to figure it out from there. 

“Ultimately, it’s about the players. They’re the ones that make the plays. … You need good players to win. And the games that we’ve won, our players have played good enough to win. They made the plays they need to make. So, it really comes down to having good players.”

The debate over who deserves more credit for New England’s run of six Super Bowl championships and nine appearances in Brady and Belichick’s 19 years together was always silly. But after Brady won his seventh ring last season in Tampa, it looked as though the Pats would miss him more than the other way around.

That no longer seems to be the case now, as Belichick’s squad has bounced back in a huge way. His players are making plays again. The team is winning again. And no team hates to see it more than Buffalo, which has to go through New England if it wants to avoid becoming a division afterthought again. This is the way it always should’ve went.