“Tick, Tick … Boom” opened in theaters on November 12 before streaming on Netflix the following week on November 19. Along the way, its leading man Andrew Garfield has exploded in the Oscar predictions of the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed. He now ranks third in their forecasts, behind only Will Smith (“King Richard“) and Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog“).
The film is based on the autobiographical stage musical by late Broadway composer Jonathan Larson. Garfield plays Larson as he struggled to balance his artistic ambitions with his personal relationships and the harsh realities of being a starving artist in New York City. As recently as November 9, Garfield was ranked eighth by the Experts. By November 15 he cracked the top five. And on November 30 he moved past Denzel Washington (“The Tragedy of Macbeth“) to take third place. (See the graph of his progress below.)
As of this writing 21 out of 24 Experts are betting on Garfield to be nominated. This would be his second, following his Best Actor bid for “Hacksaw Ridge” (2016). And just like that awards campaign, this year he’s helped by starring in two different Oscar contenders. In 2016 he also appeared in Martin Scorsese‘s “Silence.” This time around he’s also featured in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” as nefarious televangelist Jim Bakker (he’s being campaign as a supporting actor for that, so he won’t have to worry about splitting his own votes).
His two roles this year highlight his range, which may impress his fellow actors in the motion picture academy, especially since he wasn’t known as a singer before being cast in “Tick, Tick … Boom.” Playing a beloved Broadway figure three years after winning a Tony for the revival of “Angels in America” further strengthens his artistic cred. And the film’s ode to New York theater may resonate more strongly than ever after Broadway’s long COVID shutdown. Could he continue rising in the Experts’ odds until he’s the front-runner to win?
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