The year ahead in American politics looks daunting for Democrats

IN 2021 JOE BIDEN’S presidency began with early success, not long after a violent insurrection at the Capitol by diehard supporters of Donald Trump. In 2022, a reversal of fortunes is likely. Whatever verve the Biden administration still has may be killed off after the mid-term elections in November—a date that will also mark the unofficial start of the next presidential contest, which at this point seems a prelude to Mr Trump’s recoronation.

Consider first the flagging fortunes of the son of Scranton. After success at passing a gargantuan stimulus package (in hindsight it was too big), Mr Biden’s presidency became stuck. The blows came one after the other: high inflation, fuelled...