MMO Free Agent Profile: Anthony Rizzo, 1B

Anthony Rizzo

Position: First base
Bats/Throws: L/L
Age: 32 (8/8/1989)

Traditional Stats: 141 G, 576 PA, .248 BA, .344 OBP, .440 SLG, .784 OPS, 22 HR, 63 RBI, 73 R
Advanced Stats: 112 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR, 1.7 bWAR, .346 xwOBA, 9.0 BB%, 15.1 K%, .192 ISO, .258 BABIP

Rundown

Anthony Rizzo was a sixth-round draft pick out of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla. in 2007, then he was a name thrown into a couple trades across the Boston Red Sox (dealt for Adrian Gonzalez) and San Diego (dealt for Andrew Cashner), eventually landing in Chicago in 2012.

Though he struggled in 2011 over a third of a season in San Diego, his hot start in Triple-A in 2012 earned him a call-up to the majors. He started and first for the Cubs the rest of the season, and he helped kickstart the team’s rise to an eventual World Series champion in 2016.

Over his eight-and-a-half-year Cubs career, Rizzo was a pinnacle of crowding the plate and iron-clad defense. He hit for consistent power (31 or 32 home runs in four straight seasons) and got on base a lot (six straight seasons with above a .375 OBP). He had a remarkably even career with the Cubs when it comes it both his output and underlying numbers. His walk rate stayed around 11 percent for eight years, and his strikeout percentage never wavered into the high teens and 20s. On a team with guys like Javier Báez and Kris Bryant, Rizzo was the constant.

But then Rizzo finally played in a uniform other than the Cubs last season when he was traded to the Yankees at the trade deadline. No matter the different ballpark or division or league, Rizzo’s results stayed basically identical as they were with the Cubs in the first half of the 2021 season. His average? One point off. His OBP? Six-point difference. His slugging? Less than a 20-point dip from Chicago to New York. He’s consistent. Though his 112 wRC+ and sub-.800 OPS weren’t Rizzo’s peak, he still offered was a reliable and above-average player while on a struggling team and one fighting for a postseason berth.

What Rizzo has working for him in spades is a history of health. The first baseman has played in at least 90 percent of his team’s eligible games in seven of his nine full seasons, and in the two seasons he didn’t hit that 90 percent mark, he still played in 140 and 141 games. (The only reason he didn’t play in 9-10 more games in 2021 was because of a 10-day stint on the injured list with COVID-19.) He’s there just about every day.

Contract

Rizzo signed a wildly team-friendly deal back in 2013 to lock him down for nine seasons with the Cubs.

In 2013, Rizzo signed a seven-year, $41 million deal extension with the Cubs. That deal had two club options to bring the total to nine years. In all, the deal bought out all of Rizzo’s team control plus another couple years of free agency.

Rizzo earned $16.5 million per year in each of the last two years of club options. While he might not earn that much per year with his next contract, he might push up against it. MLB Trade Rumors predicted three years and $45 million total at the beginning of the offseason, and Fangraphs‘ crowdsourcing model puts Rizzo at around two or three years and $13 million to $16 million per year.

Recommendation

The Mets should probably stay away here. If the team were to go after a first baseman this offseason, it should be the top dog: Freddie Freeman.

While the team doesn’t need a first baseman, of course, the Mets are at a point where accumulating really, really good players wouldn’t be a bad thing. Having someone like Freeman split time at first and designated hitter (should it come to the National League on a full-time basis next season) with Pete Alonso would supercharge the Mets’ offense. I’m not sure that same thing happens with Rizzo and Alonso, who expressed that he doesn’t want to be a full-time DH at this point in his career, playing that same split.

Rizzo is a rung below Freeman at this stage of his career, and while he’s still a solid, above-average first baseman, bringing him in would cause more problems (mainly lineup rigidity) than the Mets need.

The post MMO Free Agent Profile: Anthony Rizzo, 1B first appeared on Metsmerized Online.