Optimizing Healthy Lines
Obviously this is a hypothetical, as I can count on one hand the number of games the Pens have actually been fully healthy for over the last few years. But say the stars align like last year's playoffs sans game 1, and we have our full complement of forwards. With Blueger and Zucker expected back before the postseason, the dream could yet become reality.
So we're not here all day, let's start with a few reasonable assumptions. For starters, Let's assume Sid and the Kids should stay together. Guentzel and Rust were great with Malkin in 2019-20 as well, but Crosby has no real track record with any of the other wings, and it's kinda late in the game to make a wholesale switch to your top line, anyway. You could split Jake and Rust up, but that involves either keeping Zucker in the top 6 where he's struggled, or splitting Rodrigues and Kapanen, which is problematic for reasons I'll elaborate on later.
There's no denying the results. Guentzel-Crosby-Rust ranks 25th out of 175 lines with 4.16 on-ice goals-for per 60 minutes (minimum 75 5v5 mins). They've also played more minutes together than all but 4 of the lines ranked ahead of them. The only downside is that Rust's next contract inflates with each passing game. But that's a tomorrow problem. They were highly effective in last year's playoffs with a 57.7% expected goals-for percentage; they just happened to be snake-bitten by an absurdly low 3.3% on-ice shooting percentage. Don't let narratives fool you. This is the Pens' best possible line combo and objectively one of the best lines in the league.
Next, let's also assume the 4th line stays together. Though not quite as effective as last year with Tanev, they're essential to the Pens' 5-man shutdown unit, along with Pettersson and Marino. Their defensive success is right on par with the 1st line's offensive success. They're 24th in the aforementioned sample in fewest expected goals-allowed per 60, and they've played more minutes than all of the lines ahead of them. ZAR isn't worth much offensively, and Marino really hasn't come close to replicating his rookie year. But Blueger and McGinn bring enough scoring prowess that the unit isn't totally milquetoast. They'll be needed to close out big games, and hopefully there will be many.
The rest is a bit tricky. Malkin's the 2C and Carter the 3, but who gets which of the 4 remaining wings? (Rodrigues, Kapanen, Zucker, Heinen). Diving into the numbers, I can pretty confidently say Rodrigues and Kapanen should stay together. Kapanen has a 62.4% xGF% in 226 5v5 minutes with Rodrigues, and a 47.3% xGF% 5v5 minutes without. There's enough of a sample in each case to validate the contrast, especially considering the 47.3% xGF% is right in line with Kap's 47.8% xGF% from 2020-21.
Reality is: when Kapanen isn't scoring he ain't doing much; the poor man's Patrik Laine, if you will (personally, I wouldn't). E-Rod's inevitably pricing himself out of Pittsburgh. That leads me to believe Kap should be on his way out as well, but that's an article for another day. For now, if Rodrigues can buoy Kapanen before packing his bags, that's a win.
Now that that pair has been established, do they go with Malkin or Carter? With Rodrigues having cooled off himself, they may need Malkin to stay afloat. Geno's shown a proclivity in the past for elevating relatively marginal wingers for deep playoff runs. In '09, Petr Sykora, his 25-goal linemate from the previous year's Cup run, fell off the map and was a healthy scratch. That meant Geno had to elevate Max Talbot, a 4th liner. And he did so on the grandest stage of all: Detroit game 7. In '16, HBK meant that Geno effectively got the 5th & 6th best wings: Kunitz and Rust, ships passing in the night in terms of their respective careers. And that line was the Pens' best in terms of both goals and expected goals.
Geno admittedly has poor underlying numbers at the moment, but that can be chalked up to return from injury. E-Rod & Kap aren't ideal 2nd line wings, but the Zucker-Malkin-Kapanen line was so bad last year that there's nowhere to go but up.
Not dissimilarly, Carter has been rock solid offensively, but a dirty little secret is that his possession numbers have fallen off a cliff. His on-ice xGF% has plummeted from 57.7% to 47.2%. Certainly not saying advanced stats make a guy with 26 points in 40 games a liability; I'd have to disavow Phil Kessel if that were the case. But it's likely best to keep him away from two players who themselves are already struggling to drive play.
Luckily, Zucker's turned around his two-way game, making him a perfect complement. And Heinen fills the last spot. As luck would have it, that Zucker-Carter-Heinen line has rocked a 58.1 xGF% in 78 5v5 minutes together. The trio has scored 27 goals in a combined 111 games, putting them each at a neat 20 goals per 82 games pace. For context, HBK averaged 23 goals per guy per 82 during that Cup run. Let them keep that momentum going.
This has all the makings of an effective lineup. The 2nd line is the greatest question mark, but Geno's playoff history inspires me. The 3rd line is a hallmark of past Pens postseason success. It was great last year against the Isles and it turn the team was great, the two squads just had polar opposite goalie play. The way Jarry's played, I'd strongly bet against that happening again. With the squad the Pens could roll out, I'd have a hard time not being at least a little disappointed if they didn't make it to the Eastern Final.