Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Russia, Ukraine, and NATO's Rebirth
The Ukraine crisis is at a precarious point. U.S. and NATO officials expect that in the next several weeks, Vladimir Putin will decide whether to unleash the massive firepower he has amassed around Ukraine’s borders against his neighbor, or whether to roll back the threat.
“The only person who can tell you what Putin will decide is Putin,” said U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, “We are at a fork in the road. We are prepared either way. All we can do is try to affect his calculus.” Multiple senior U.S. officials with whom I spoke said they feel that it is “much more likely than not that Putin pulls the trigger on some kind of aggression.”
The U.S. and its allies are closely monitoring the leading indicators of Russian action. One such indicator is recent reports that the Russian military is moving supplies of blood that may be used to aid wounded troops closer to the Ukraine border. Another is on-going “training exercises” familiarizing the Russian military with the conditions in which they may be fighting. But, notes one senior State Department official, “It’s certainly within Putin’s modus operandi to make you think you’ve passed the point of no return and then he hits the return button.”