Oscars 2022: Will there be another Best Picture and Director split?
After a decade full of different films winning Best Picture and Best Director, Oscar voters have recently gone back to their typical routine of pairing them together. “Parasite” (2019) and director Bong Joon-ho both won their respective Picture and Director prizes, while “Nomadland” (2020) and Chloe Zhao did the same last year. We now face a scenario where many are expecting another pairing with Jane Campion‘s “The Power of the Dog” winning Best Picture and Best Director. But could there be an upset brewing that could cause another split?
SEE 2022 Oscar nominations: Full list of nominees in all 23 categories at the 94th Academy Awards
Campion was already far out in front to win Best Director after dominating the various critic awards, but that frontrunner status was firmly cemented with the academy showering “The Power of the Dog” with a leading 12 nominations. Barring any massive upset, she will likely take the Best Director prize, becoming the second consecutive and third woman overall to win this category. The harder prize is Best Picture, and while “The Power of the Dog” may seem like the no-brainer winner, the preferential ballot is often an obstacle for darker films such as Campion’s and could benefit another contender in the race.
In addition to Campion, this year’s Best Director nominees include Paul Thomas Anderson (“Licorice Pizza”), Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (“Drive My Car”) and Steven Spielberg (“West Side Story”). All five directors’ films landed in Best Picture, which is voted on by all members of the academy. This kind of broad support suggests that one of them is our likely Best Picture winner, though we have had cases in recent years where a non-nominated director has seen their film win Best Picture, such as Ben Affleck‘s “Argo” and Peter Farrelly‘s “Green Book.” While this is encouraging for the other five nominees in Best Picture, “CODA,” “Don’t Look Up,” “Dune,” “King Richard” and “Nightmare Alley,” the nomination will likely be the reward in the end.
So that leaves “Licorice Pizza,” “Belfast,” “Drive My Car” and “West Side Story” as potential Best Picture alternatives to “The Power of the Dog.” From these four, “Licorice Pizza” underperformed with only three nominations in total, failing to land any acting bids or below-the-line support, while “Drive My Car” is a massive critics’ favorite but some impatient members may be turned off by the film’s deliberate pacing and three-hour runtime. That leaves “Belfast” and “West Side Story” as the likeliest alternatives that may place higher on the preferential ballot. Both scored seven nominations apiece and have more positive audience scores on Rotten Tomatoes and IMDb than “The Power of the Dog.”
While a “Belfast” or “West Side Story” upset is possible, it is also undeniable that their overall support is lacking compared to “The Power of the Dog.” Both films were snubbed in Best Film Editing, a category that is generally considered a bellwether for Best Picture, while “The Power of the Dog” did make it in. Considering the two films have flashy editing, from “Belfast’s” various vignettes to “West Side Story’s” elaborate musical sequences, this is bad news. Meanwhile, “The Power of the Dog” made it into just about every category it competed for, including a surprising inclusion in Best Production Design. Unless the tides turn and “The Power of the Dog” suffers from frontrunner backlash the likes of which we haven’t seen since “La La Land,” Picture and Director will likely line up for the third year in a row, but as we’ve all learned the hard way, the Oscars are always capable of last-minute surprises.
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