US intelligence fears tens of thousands could die in days if Ukraine is attacked
There are fears tens of thousands could die within a matter of days if Russian forces invade Ukraine.
With many now fearing it is a matter of when, not if, Vladimir Putin gives the order, attention has turned in some quarters to what an action could look like.
As many as 190,000 soldiers and a vast array of military hardware are massed on the northern and eastern border.
Diplomatic efforts to avoid a bloody conflict are ongoing but the US and UK now believe the Russian president has already decided to go ahead with the incursion.
There has been renewed fighting in areas where rebel groups backed by the Kremlin have been at war with the Ukrainian government since 2014.
Russian news agencies claimed five Ukrainian operatives were killed while trying to cross into Russia but the government in Kyiv has flatly denied this, calling the allegations ‘fake’.
The West has repeatedly stated it believes Russia could use staged ‘false flag’ events as a pretext to take military action.
It remains unclear what sort of invasion Russia is preparing for, with the options ranging from limited attacks designed to undermine Ukraine, the adoption and annexation of parts of eastern Ukraine and right through to Kyiv being stormed and the country being occupied.
It’s likely any incursion would be preceded by cyberattacks and an assault on critical communications infrastructure, making it harder for Ukraine forces to organise a resistance.
According to the New York Times, American intelligence officers have gained access to some of Russia’s military planning and some are convinced a full assault on Kyiv is on the cards.
An unnamed official told the paper: ‘We were told to expect tens of thousands of casualties in the opening days’.
The NYT also reported that some in the US believe a prolonged occupation – which would be costly and likely to be met with fierce domestic resistance – is unlikely if the Kremlin successfully installs a puppet regime.
But others in Joe Biden’s White House are said to be sceptical of this assessment and believe Mr Putin is in it for the long haul.
The public assessment of Western government’s has darkened considerably in recent days, with world leaders now openly stating they believe the Russian president has already decided to invade.
Vladimir Putin met with his security council for a staged meeting in front of TV cameras today in the latest sign he is edging toward formally recognising the breakaway republic in Luhansk and Donetsk.
He told his ministers and officials he believes there are ‘no prospects’ for the Minsk peace process to establish special status for the region being finalised.
Any move to formally adopt the illegal republics could be a precursor to an annexation similar to what happened in Crimea.
Downing Street has stressed there is still a ‘window for diplomacy’ but added: ‘Intelligence we are seeing suggests Russia intends to launch an invasion and president Putin’s plan has in effect already begun.’
Foreign secretary Liz Truss said she believes an attack is now ‘highly likely’.
French president Emmanuel Macron has been leading efforts to broker a meeting between the leaders of Russia and the US.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that while Mr Putin and Mr Biden could meet if they considered it necessary, no plans for a summit had been agreed.
Russia’s ambassador to the UK, Andrei Kelin, said it was still too early to say whether a meeting between Mr Biden and Mr Putin would take place.
Further discussions are expected to take place later this week between US secretary of state Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov.
What is going on with Russia and Ukraine?
Ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Kremlin has been concerned about the West’s military expansion into what it sees as Russia’s backyard.
Nato, the US-dominated military alliance which the UK and the majority of European nations are members of, has expanded over the last two decades to cover eastern European and Baltic states.
Ukraine is recognised as an ‘aspiring member’ and has been growing institutionally closer to the West ever since the 2013 Euromaidan demonstrations led to the pro-Russian government being toppled by protesters who favour deeper ties with Europe.
President Vladimir Putin regards Ukraine - which was part of the Soviet Union until 1991 - as a ‘red line’ and has called on the US and Nato to provide guarantees that it won’t become a member, something the West won’t do.
Russia wants to see Nato returned to something closer to its pre-1997 formation before eastern countries on its border joined, as well as the removal of military capabilities from places like Poland and Romania.
The situation between Russia and Ukraine is complicated by the historical and cultural ties between the two countries. Russian is widely spoken in Ukraine and the country is divided between people who feel more European and those who feel more Russian, especially in the country’s eastern areas.
President Putin regards Ukraine as part of ‘greater Russia’ and has written and spoken in the past about reuniting the Russian and Ukrainian people.
In 2014, Russia responded to the fall of the pro-Russian government in Kyiv by annexing Crimea. The peninsula to the south of Ukraine is still recognised as part of the country by the United Nations. Pro-Russian sepratist militants seized control of other areas in the country’s east. Ukraine estimates 7% of its territory was illegally occupied by Russia as of 2021.
Armed conflict has rumbled on in parts of Ukraine ever since but a larger invasion appears to be closer now than ever before after Russia amassed huge military resources close to the border.
President Putin insists Russia is not planning to invade and it remains unclear whether the troop movement is a prelude to war or whether the Kremlin is using it to force guarantees on Nato expansion from the West.
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