Ukraine crisis could drive up South African food prices, warns research group

The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) on Tuesday warned that the Russia-Ukraine crisis could “substantially” drive up global and so local prices for maize, wheat and vegetable oils. Ukraine was the world’s number four maize exporter, with an about 15% share of global exports, and Russia was a top exporter of wheat, whose share of global exports was some 20%. The two countries also ranked in the top ten of sunflower seed exporters. “[T]he risks associated with rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine could influence both international commodity prices and investor risk sentiments which may lead to depreciation in the Rand exchange rate,” cautioned BFAP. “Through its influence on energy, international commodity prices and exchange rate depreciation, possible escalation of tensions in the Black Sea region presents a major risk factor to food inflation.”