Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia may not survive the war in Ukraine

TRAFFIC ON THE Bosporus, the waterway that splits Istanbul and connects the Marmara and Black seas, has been busier than usual of late, and more dangerous. Making their way past supertankers, passenger ferries and the occasional pod of dolphins are Russian warships heading north towards Ukraine. Since the start of February, at least six Russian amphibious assault ships, as well as a Kilo-class submarine, have passed through. Russia now has four such submarines in the Black sea, each armed with missiles capable of striking targets anywhere in Ukraine.

Few countries are watching the war for which these weapons were deployed as anxiously as Turkey. Its government, headed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is eager to preserve a recent  rapprochement with Russia. “We cannot give up” on either Russia or Ukraine, Mr Erdogan said on February 23rd. But Russia’s actions may end up forcing his hand. The following day, as Russian bombs began falling on Ukraine, Turkey’s foreign ministry called the invasion “unacceptable” and “a grave violation of international law”. It had already denounced Russia’s recognition of separatist enclaves in Ukraine. The war will test the relationship, possibly to destruction.

Turkey’s most immediate concern is its economy. Mr Erdogan, who has helped drive inflation to over 48% and maimed his...