What is a no-fly zone and will NATO impose one?

Russia and the West have both imposed airspace bans already – but a no-fly zone is slightly different.

As Ukraine faces continued military assault from Russia, many are calling for NATO to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

Because, as a Ukrainian activist told Boris Johnson earlier this month: ‘Ukrainian people are desperately asking for the West to protect our sky. 

‘We are asking for the no-fly zone, and you say in response it will trigger World War III. But what is the alternative Mr Prime Minister? To observe?’

Ukrainian president Vlodymyr Zelensky has also repeatedly called for a no-fly zone – saying in an emotional speech last week that NATO shares the blame for deaths in Ukraine by refusing to impose one.

No-fly zones aren’t the same as banning a country’s planes (commercial or otherwise) from your airspace – as this is something the UK, US, EU and Canada have already done.

So, then, what exactly does a no-fly zone really mean? And who would implement it?

What is a no-fly zone?

A no-fly zone is as it sounds: an area that is declared as a place where military planes can’t fly.

For example: if a no-fly zone was to be imposed over Ukraine, that would mean Russian planes couldn’t fly over it – nor drop bombs from the sky – or else they’d be shot down.

And therein lies the rub.

An authority can decide somewhere is a no-fly zone, but that doesn’t mean that everyone – especially the enemy – will just roll over and accept that it’s now off-limits.

No-fly zones need to be enforced, and that would typically mean engaging with the aircrafts – either by surveillance, defensive measures, or potentially shooting down planes that refuse to comply.

However, a no-fly zone would (obviously) greatly affect an army’s ability to drop bombs on another country – causing destruction to cities and killing thousands of innocent civilians.

Will NATO impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine?

NATO has repeatedly warned that it won’t enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine – despite repeated pleas from Volodymyr Zelensky, who told NATO: ‘Starting from today everyone who dies will die because of you as well, because of your weakness, because of your disunity.’

General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said on February 28 that there was ‘no intention of moving into Ukraine, either on the ground or in the air.’

US President Joe Biden’s Press Secretary Jen Psaki concurred, telling MSNBC on February 28: ‘Here’s what’s important for everybody to know about a no-fly zone.

‘What that would require is implementation by the US military. It would essentially mean the US military would be shooting down planes – Russian planes.

‘That is definitely escalatory. It would put us in a place where we’re in a military conflict with Russia. That is not something the President wants us to do.’

The UK Defence Minister Ben Wallace has also cautioned against a no-fly zone, even saying it could trigger a wider war.

He told BBC Breakfast: ‘A no-fly zone would have to be enforced, and it would be enforced by European nations…

‘The Russians wouldn’t listen to the no-fly zone and carry on doing what they’re doing, so eventually you would see a Nato or European fighter jet shoot down a Russian jet.

‘That probably would trigger Article 5 of NATO, which is collective self-defence. All 30 countries.’

Can other organisations enforce no-fly zones? Technically, they could – but again they’d be risking a direct, escalated battle with Russia, which is known for its large military.

Vladimir Putin has warned that a no-fly zone imposed by any other nation would be tantamount to a declaration of all-our war.

Speaking during a meeting of Aeroflot trainees he said any no-fly zone would amount to ‘participation in the armed conflict’ and that ‘any move in this direction’ would ‘pose a threat to our service members’.

He continued: ‘That very second, we will view them as participants of the military conflict, and it would not matter what members they are.’

Have no-fly zones been used before?

After the first Gulf War in 1991 the US and coalition partners established two no-fly zones in Iraq to prevent attacks against some ethnic and religious groups. This was done without United Nations (UN) backing.

In 1992, during the Balkans conflict, the UN passed a resolution which banned unauthorised military flights in Bosnian airspace.

The UN Security Council also approved a no-fly zone as part of the 2011 military intervention in Libya.

The Bosnian and Libya zones were backed and enforced by NATO.

No-fly zones can also be imposed in a non-combat setting – there is currently one in place over Windsor Castle, which came into force at the end of January after a review of security at the royal residence.

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