Oil mayhem: Treasury revises inflation outlook, DPE warns of 'fuel rationing' if war continues

National Treasury has revised its 2022 estimates for inflation owing to the war in Ukraine from 4.8%, which was the February projection, to between 5% and 5.5% - depending on how much the oil price rises over the year.  This is significantly lower than many economists, some of whom have estimated inflation for 2022 could average 5.9%. At a briefing to Parliament on the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on the South African economy, the Treasury said that based on the crude oil futures curve, the oil price has risen 19%, taking inflation projections to 5%. If the crude oil price was to rise by 30% inflation would average 5.2%. A 40% increase would take inflation to 5.3% and a 50% rise to 5.5%.