Portugal’s central problem as World Cup playoffs loom

Portugal’s World Cup playoff semi-final against Turkey is just over a week away. Much like in the anticipatory period that precedes major tournaments, Seleção fans have been hoping against hope that the national team’s key players avoid injury, especially given that João Cancelo and Renato Sanches are both suspended for the match.

Unfortunately, Fernando Santos’s worst fears were realised last week. Manchester City centre-back Rúben Dias picked up a hamstring injury, ruling him out of the playoffs. Moreover, stalwart Pepe suffered a head injury in Porto’s defeat against Lyon last week and missed Sunday night’s match against Tondela.

In the area of the pitch where Portugal most lacks quality options, a weakened central defence is a major blow in the lead-up to the most important game for almost four years for the Seleção. PortuGOAL looks at the selectable central defenders for the encounter at the Estádio do Dragão against Turkey and – hopefully – the playoff final a few days later, also to be staged in Porto, probably against Italy. 

Three-man back line shot down  

As recently discussed in the PortuGOAL article speculating on what Portugal’s 2022 FIFA World Cup playoff team may look like, it is not inconceivable that Fernando Santos was contemplating switching to a three-at-the-back system with wing-backs.

Although he has pooh-poohed the idea in the past, Portugal’s recent struggles seemed to have opened up the naturally conservative Santos to the idea of making such a change.

Given that one half of Portugal’s first choice centre-back pairing is definitely out of the playoffs, and fitness doubts surround the other half, it now seems very unlikely Santos will select a three-man defence that would necessarily have to includes one, possibly two rookies, with little to no international experience.

Santos attracted criticism, even when results were going well in the early years of his tenure as Portugal coach, for his reluctance to draft younger centre-backs into the Seleção setup. While the likes of Ricardo Carvalho, Bruno Alves, José Fonte and Pepe all performed admirably for Santos, the latter two continuing to do so, the risk of having no succession plan at the heart of defence has now been brought into sharp relief.

Portugal’s centre-back options for the World Cup play-offs

Pepe: If fit, Pepe will naturally take his place as the leader of the back line. Now 39 years old, the Seleção stalwart continues to show he can mix it with the best at the top level. His memorable performance as Porto knocked Juventus out of last season’s Champions League proved as much. However, although the quality of Pepe’s displays remains of the highest order, the years are beginning to take their toll. FC Porto have played 42 matches in all competitions this season, and Pepe has played the full 90 minutes in only 18 of them, out of a total of 22 appearances for the Dragons in 2021/22.

José Fonte: Another evergreen player whose performance level defies his age. Now 38 years old, Fonte continues to be a bedrock of the Lille defence, captaining the French team to the Ligue 1 title last year. This season he has made 38 appearances for his club and formed an effective partnership with Sven Botman.

Danilo Pereira: Three of Danilo’s last four starts for Portugal have come in central defence. The emergence of holding midfielders such as Palhinha and Matheus Nunes alongside more established players such as William, Rúben Neves and João Moutinho means Santos has plenty of options.

Danilo recently played at centre-back in both international friendlies against Qatar and started next to Pepe in the World Cup qualifier against the Republic of Ireland in Dublin. The 30-year-old has not been played in central defence at PSG this season, but Santos’ deployment of him there is a clear indication that he is next in line should Pepe or José Fonte be unavailable.

Domingos Duarte: The 27-year-old helped guide Granada to a 7th place finish in his first season at the club in 2019/2020 which saw the Andalucian club qualify for the Europa League. He has played three matches for Portugal, two friendlies in 2019 and a World Cup qualifier in March 2021, a 1-0 win in Azerbaijan.

Duarte wasn’t called up in Santos’s latest squad with José Fonte, Rúben Dias, Pepe and Danilo Pereira preferred. With younger options starting to emerge for the Seleção, it’s hard to see how Duarte gets another look-in under Santos.

Gonçalo Inácio: The Sporting centre-back is one of the players who can count himself unlucky not to have acquired any caps for Portugal. Thrust into the Lisbon team last season, Inácio enjoyed a fabulous debut campaign, playing a big role in helping the Lions to their first title triumph in 19 years.

This season he has again been excellent, his superb distribution with a cultured left foot and a propensity to score and/or assist at set pieces two additional assets to a sound all-round game. Although only 20 years old, Inácio’s youth is countered by the fact he has over 60 club games (including 7 Champions League matches) of experience under his belt.

David Carmo: A terrible ankle injury suffered in February 2021 put David Carmo on the sidelines for of a year, robbing the talented youngster of vital playing and development time. Recently making his comeback in Braga’s 1-0 win at Tondela, the 22-year-old had played every minute since, guiding the Guerreiros to four clean sheets in his first five games back for the club, including the 2-0 win against Monaco in the UEFA Europa League.

Speaking exclusively to PortuGOAL after recent wins against Tondela and Monaco, Carvalhal has big hopes for Carmo, stating: “He is a fantastic centre back, one of the best in the country. He gives us a lot defensively, but offensively too, he has an amazing left foot, speed on the ball, he gives speed to our game and finds players near and far with accurante short and long-range passes. He gives confidence to the defence and to the team as a whole. We are calmer when he’s playing.”

Tiago Djaló: José Fonte’s teammate at Lille, Djaló had to bide his time for the Portuguese U21 side, sitting behind Diogo Leite and Diogo Queirós in the pecking order for Rui Jorge’s side.

He started the first three U21 qualifiers of the current campaign partnering Eduardo Quaresma before an injury saw him miss the subsequent victories, where Quaresma partnered Gonçalo Inácio. Djaló has been used at right-back and left-back by at Lille this season, and that versatility could see him come into contention.

Diogo Leite: Diogo Leite was ever-present for Portugal’s youth teams, but he failed to find a place in Sérgio Conceição’s squad and was loaned to Braga. He has shown himself to be a useful addition to Carvalhal’s squad, but he is way behind David Carmo at Braga and unlikely to be considered for the Seleção any time soon. 

Conclusion

Porto’s decision to leave Pepe on the pitch against Lyon could have dire consequences for the 38-year-old and for Portugal, but assuming he recovers in time, Pepe is expected to line up next to José Fonte.

Danilo is next in line, while Gonçalo Inácio, Tiago Djaló and David Carmo will all be sweating on Santos’ squad selection.

It’s becoming evident that Inácio, Carmo and Djaló are going to be the future for the Seleção, but they might have to wait a little longer before Pepe and Fonte call it a day as Santos continues to favour experience over youth.

by Tom Kundert & Matthew Marshall