2022 Grammy predictions: Past Song of the Year champs Billie Eilish and Bruno Mars face rookie Olivia Rodrigo
Song of the Year at the Grammys is a huge honor for songwriting in the industry. The award has gone to some classic compositions over the years, from Simon and Garfunkel’s “Bridge Over Troubled Water” to Adele’s “Rolling in the Deep” and Childish Gambino’s “This Is America.” This year 10 songs are fighting to claim the top prize, with a couple of players looking to earn their second win.
There are a couple of front-runners this year. Olivia Rodrigo’s “Drivers License” leads the Gold Derby odds, being the breakout hit of 2021 and amassing a lot of acclaim and sales. Rodrigo’s win wouldn’t be unprecedented, as we have seen the Grammys give this award to new artists before (Alicia Keys, Lorde, and Sam Smith won here for their breakthrough hits). “Drivers License” also perfectly fits what voters typically recognize here: love and heartbreak ballads have a strong track record. And Rodrigo’s continued success throughout the year might be enough for voters to give her their support. Rodrigo might also be very appealing to voters from multiple fields due to how popular and accessible the song was.
However, another artist who has proven to be broadly appealing to voters is Billie Eilish. This year Eilish’s song “Happier Than Ever” is in similar territory as Rodrigo’s, starting as a ballad and then exploding into a rock banger. While Eilish has won this category before (for “Bad Guy” two years ago), voters have shown that they don’t mind awarding her twice in the big categories, and “Happier Than Ever” is one of Eilish’s strongest songs, especially lyrically.
Another past winner (for “That’s What I Like” in 2018) looking to repeat here is Bruno Mars with his number-one hit “Leave the Door Open,” alongside fellow Grammy favorite Anderson Paak as the supergroup Silk Sonic. “Door” could prove to be stronger than Eilish and Rodrigo, especially as its retro R&B style makes it nostalgic, which voters love and could attract older academy members. Mars and Paak also have the advantage of having been recognized in multiple fields before (pop, R&B, rap, engineering), so we know for a fact that “Door” has cross-genre appeal. Its biggest roadblock, however, could be H.E.R.’s “Fight For You” splitting the R&B vote. H.E.R. just won this category last year for “I Can’t Breathe,” meaning she’s also very much a Grammy favorite and could surprise for another win. “Fight For You” won the Academy Award for Best Original Song too, so it’s safe to say it is already loved in the industry.
Yet more previous winners are also looking to prevail again. Ed Sheeran’s “Bad Habits” was a major success (one of the 15 biggest songs of 2021, according to Billboard), but with its lack of a genre nomination (or any other nominations), it is not likely to win. Similarly, while the aforementioned Alicia Keys won in the past, “A Beautiful Noise” might have just been carried by the names of its artists/songwriters (Keys and Brandi Carlile) and its message, but will likely not pick up the award as it also has no genre nomination.
Eight-time nominees Doja Cat and Justin Bieber are both nominated here. Doja Cat’s “Kiss Me More” (featuring SZA), while a big hit with multiple nominations, could be too poppy and lightweight for most Grammy voters, who like to go for songs that feel a bit more serious and artsy. Likewise, while I’d say Bieber’s “Peaches” has a slightly better shot due to being a more traditionally Grammy-friendly R&B song, it still probably won’t be the top vote-getter among pop or R&B academy members, which might ultimately cost it a win.
Last but not least, this category could give us a queer winner this year, as two LGBT+ five-time nominees this year are in the race. Brandi Carlile (yes, she’s nominated twice) might have the upper hand with her traditional “Right on Time,” which could benefit from being the only Americana/country-adjacent song here, thereby attracting votes from those communities. “Right On Time” also got a nomination in pop after it was re-categorized there by the academy (Carlile had submitted it to American roots), which indicates additional pop support. The other possible queer winner is Lil Nas X with his hit “Montero (Call Me By Your Name).” While Nas got five nominations, the lack of a pop bid for the song, as well as its controversial video, could mean that Nas will have to sit this one out.
The award might ultimately be between “Leave the Door Open,” “Happier Than Ever,” and “Drivers License.” Out of the three, my gut is telling me that Eilish has the edge here. The lack of a rock artist could mean those voters will swing her way, and she’s clearly popular enough in the Recording Academy to pick up another award.
Will win: Billie Eilish, “Happier Than Ever”
Likeliest upset: Silk Sonic, “Leave The Door Open”
Possible dark horse: Olivia Rodrigo, “Drivers License”
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