NCAA Tournament: Best bets for the first round, plus title favorites and trends on over/under and ATS
The top two betting favorites reside in the Western third of the country for the first time in ages. But will Gonzaga and Arizona prove to be value bets?
The betting favorites in the NCAA Tournament are Gonzaga and Arizona.
That’s not a misprint.
It’s not a COVID year.
It’s not an alternative universe.
Two Western teams are the betting favorites to win the national championship for the first time since… we have no idea.
Here’s the list of frontrunners, according to the oddsmakers at DraftKings.
(Note: A betting line of +300 means you bet $100 to win $300.)
Gonzaga: +300
Arizona: +650
Kentucky: +800
Kansas: +850
Baylor: +1200
Auburn: +1200
Villanova: +1400
Before we get to the picks, a few trends for your consumption, courtesy of OddsShark …
— Best OVER teams (with O/U record)
Alabama: 21-10-1
UAB: 21-11
Iowa: 22-12-1
Arkansas: 20-13
Miami: 20-13
— Best UNDER team (with O/U record)
Georgia State: 18-8
Creighton: 21-11-1
Colorado State: 19-10
Seton Hall: 20-11
Saint Peter’s: 19-11
— Worst teams against the spread (with ATS record)
Alabama: 11-21
Texas: 12-19-1
Purdue: 13-20-1
Michigan: 13-18
Illinois: 13-18
You’re welcome.
To the Hotline picks for the first round …
(All picks against the spread.)
No. 4 UCLA (-14.5) vs. No. 13 Akron (Thursday/East): The Bruins received no favors from the selection committee and were slotted into what might be the most difficult bracket of all. Akron, which won the MAC tournament, went basket-for-basket with Ohio State early in the season and hasn’t lost since the middle of February. Feels like too many points. The Bruins are built for March with their ability to grind, but that style lends itself to close games. Pick: Akron
No. 11 Michigan (-2.5) vs. No. 6 Colorado State (Thursday/South): Let’s see … The Rams have a higher NET ranking, a better record against Quad I opponents, better efficiency, a significantly higher seed and a better head coach in Niko Medved — and yet they are the underdog. This is brand bias at its best. And CSU will take that brand bias, carve it up, and send the Wolverines packing. Pick: Colorado State
No. 7 USC (-1.5) vs. No. 10 Miami (Friday/Midwest): A long trip for the Trojans, but at least they don’t play until Friday. Their opponent finished fourth in a conference that was comparable in quality to the Pac-12 and beat Duke but has little else to show for itself. The Hurricanes are talented offensively but play second-rate defense. We foresee plenty of scoring chances for Drew Peterson and Boogie Ellis, which will take the load off Isaiah Mobley. Pick: USC
No. 5 Iowa (-8.5) vs. No. 12 Richmond (ThursdayMidwest): What wins in the NCAAs? Offense wins in the NCAAs, and Iowa has arguably the best in the business with high-scoring forward Keegan Murray, sixth-year senior Jordan Bohannon and an array of 3-point shooters. Several of the nine Big Ten teams will melt down in the opening round. But the Hawkeyes aren’t one of them. Pick: Iowa
No. 6 LSU (-3.5) vs. No. 11 Iowa State (Thursday/Midwest): It took LSU four-and-a-half years to fire coach Will Wade for his involvement in the FBI scandal. And the Tigers, with impeccable timing, made the change just days before the NCAA Tournament. Disruption of that magnitude is rarely beneficial. The Tigers possess more talent, but we’ll take the points and stability with the Cyclones despite their late-season slide. Pick: Iowa State
Support the Hotline: Receive three months of unlimited access for just 99 cents. Yep, that’s 99 cents for 90 days, with the option to cancel anytime. Details are here, and thanks for your support.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.