Too close to call? These 2 Oscar categories are causing our Experts to rip out their hair

If you typically fill out your Oscar ballots after consulting with the predictions of Gold Derby’s Experts, you may have noticed something unique this year. In exactly two of the 23 categories — Best Actress and Best Documentary Short — all of the nominees have the support of at least one of our Experts from major media outlets. Are these races still too close to call? The other 21 categories at the 2022 Oscars are less scattershot and feature at least one nominee with zero Experts predicting it to win.

SEE 2022 Oscar nominations: Full list of nominees in all 23 categories at the 94th Academy Awards

For Best Actress, a leading 17 of 24 Experts predict a victory for Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”), who recently cleaned up at the Critics Choice and SAG Awards for her role as televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker. Despite only being nominated twice before at the Academy Awards, for “The Help” (2011) and “Zero Dark Thirty” (2012), an “overdue” narrative seems to have built around the 44-year-old movie star. The last time somebody went on to win Best Actress thanks to the “overdue” boost was Julianne Moore for “Still Alice” (2014), but she notably had twice the number of nominations as Chastain before claiming victory. Moore’s four losses were for “Boogie Nights” (1997), “The End of the Affair” (1999), “The Hours” (2002) and “Far from Heaven” (2002).

The remaining seven Experts are almost evenly split, with two predicting Olivia Colman for playing a vacationing mother in “The Lost Daughter,” two backing Nicole Kidman for portraying Lucille Ball in “Being the Ricardos,” two forecasting Kristen Stewart for embodying Princess Diana in “Spencer,” and one going out on a limb for Penelope Cruz as a pregnant photographer in “Parallel Mothers.” Of these four, all but Stewart are former Oscar champs, with Colman prevailing for “The Favourite” (lead, 2018), Kidman triumphing for “The Hours” (lead, 2002) and Cruz winning for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (supporting, 2008).

For Best Documentary Short, 12 of 20 Experts have “The Queen of Basketball” in the #1 position in their rankings. Directed by Ben Proudfoot and distributed by The New York Times, “The Queen of Basketball” premiered at Tribeca last June and tells the story of basketball legend Lusia Harris. This is Proudfoot’s second Oscar bid in this category, after “A Concerto Is a Conversation” (2020).

Three Experts back “Three Songs for Benazir” from directors Gulistan Mirzaei and Elizabeth Mirzaei. The Netflix film tells the story of a newly married Afghan man who wants to join the National Army.

A pair of Experts think “Audible” will win, the Netflix short about a Deaf football team who loses a player due to suicide. The tear-jerker is directed by Matthew Ogens.

“When We Were Bullies” also has the backing of two Experts. The German-American doc short, distributed by Gonella Productions ARTE, tells the story of director Jay Rosenblatt trying to track down his former teacher to recall a 50-year-old bullying incident.

Last but not least is Netflix’s “Lead Me Home,” which is predicted to win by the final Expert. Directors Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk travel between several West Coast cities as they explore the ever-growing homeless crisis in America.

PREDICT the 2022 Oscar winners through March 27

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