The Philippines continued to see a decline in infections, with case number staying below the 1,000 mark for over two weeks now. Meanwhile, Metro Manila and 47 other areas have been placed under Alert Level 1 or the “new normal” until the end of March. 

About 60% of the population is fully vaccinated.

Here’s what we’re watching this week of March 20, 2022: 

One-shot vaccine durability

More data is emerging to suggest that Johnson & Johnson’s one-dose COVID-19 vaccine is preventing infections and illness just as well as two-dose mRNA vaccines developed by Moderna and Pfizer. Scientists say that while more studies are needed, findings show that J&J’s shot merits a closer look. 

• Data from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed that, as of January 22, 2022, an unvaccinated person was 3.2 times more likely to get infected with COVID-19 compared to those who got the J&J vaccine. Meanwhile, the unvaccinated were also 2.8 times more likely to get infected compared to those who were fully vaccinated with the Moderna shot and 2.4 times as likely to get infected than those who were fully vaccinated with Pifizer’s shot. 
• Based on these findings so far, then, the J&J vaccine appeared to be “more protective against infection than the two alternatives,” reported the New York Times. 
  • When it comes to boosters, all three vaccine had roughly the same effectiveness against infection. 
• While more data is needed to confirm the findings, it underscores how the world is still in the process of finding out what may be the “best” vaccine regimen. J&J had initially suffered from the perception that it was a “less” protective vaccine compared to leading mRNA shots. 
• Dr. Larry Corey, an expert in vaccine development at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, told the Times: “This vaccine platform may have some surprising characteristics that we hadn’t anticipated” and the CDC data “is interesting, provocative, and we should spend more time understanding it.”
• J&J’s shot uses an adenovirus platform, which Corey described as having “much longer durability than almost any other platform that we’ve ever worked with.” 
  • Scientists also have some other guesses: J&J’s shot may produce antibodies that decline more slowly than those form other shots, or those antibodies produced may become more sophisticated over time. 
  • But other experts say more data – like a person’s infection history and conditions – is needed to get a clearer picture. 
• In the meantime, such data may reassure those who got J&J’s shot of the levels of protection they have against COVID-19. And, in the near future, more data confirming these findings would make the single-dose, easier-to-store vaccine an attractive option for middle- to low-income countries like the Philippines.

The latest surge

In Europe, coronavirus cases are on the rise again across countries, including Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy, among others, after the region lifted most pandemic restrictions in February and March. The increase in infections has other countries like the US worried that falling case trends may reverse in coming weeks, though a subvariant that appears to be driving the numbers is already in the Philippines. 

• Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, the technical lead for COVID-19 at the World Health Organization (WHO), said in a recent press conference that some factors behind the uptick in cases were the lifting of restrictions, vaccine misinformation and resistance, and BA.2 –  a subvariant known as “stealth Omicron.” 
• Surges in the region are not leading to increased hospitalizations at the moment. Initial data has also shown no differences in hospitalizations for BA.2 compared to BA.1, the original Omicron variant. 
• Current vaccines still work against Omicron and its subvariant, as do tried and tested health measures, like observing physical distancing, good ventilation, and hand washing. 
• Back in January, health officials said both BA.1 and a BA.2 had already been detected in the Philippines. In fact, at the time the BA.2 subvariant turned out to be the predominant variant in most regions. 
  • BA.1 had been predominant among returning Filipinos and was found in only eight regions. 
• It’s the latest reminder that the pandemic is not yet over and that countries, including the Philippines, should stay ready and plan for the worst outcomes. 

Path to an endemic scenario

With more countries seeking to “live with the virus,” we’ve all heard some version of how COVID-19 will become endemic in the future. But what exactly does that mean and how do we get there? 

• While getting to the “endemic” phase of COVID-19 will entail some evolutionary processes of the virus, there are also systemic changes that need to be made by the government were the Philippines to be ready to deal with the virus in years to come.
• “We can’t rely on the virus evolving into a milder form to exit the pandemic. Instead, we have to accelerate the building of an immunity wall against the virus and to do so in an equitable manner,” epidemiologist Dr. John Wong wrote on Rappler. Must-read piece here.
• Experts from public health research firm EpiMetrics explained on Rappler that there are also levels to endemicity – including “elimination,” “cohabitation,” and “conflagration” – whose outcome will depend on the public health measures we take now and the next few months. 
  • Elimination is the ideal scenario, and also the most difficult to achieve. Here, the virus may “continue to exist in the physical environment, but will struggle to cause relevant debilitating diseases to the general population, as exhibited by near-zero symptomatic infections and even severe disease.”
  • Cohabitation would be when there are “sparse reinfections, rare vaccine breakthroughs, and a negligible secondary transmission in the face of the most viral variants.”
  • Conflagration is when the virus “moderately infects and kills members of the population and which can eventually birth other variants with the potential to cause new outbreaks.”
• The most effective way to end the pandemic – or the emergency phase of the crisis – would still be vaccinating the elderly, who account for 70% of deaths. About 2.6 million elderly Filipinos are still unprotected from the virus.
• On the road toward endemicity, masks should still be in place until high vaccination levels are reached and life-saving treatments like oral antivirals need to made widely accessible. 

Pause on Sputnik V approval

The WHO was forced to delay its assessment of Russia’s Sputnik V COVID-19 after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine created difficulties in the body’s approval process. 

• WHO assistant director general Dr. Mariângela Simão said earlier scheduled inspections and flight bookings were among details affected by ongoing fighting that has spilled into its fourth week. 
• A new timetable has not been finalized and will be drawn up “as soon as possible.” Until then, Sputnik V is not yet part of the WHO’s emergency use listing for COVID-19 vaccines. 
• Over 70 countries, including the Philippines, have approved Russia’s vaccine for emergency use. But Russians and others who have received the vaccine have reported some difficulty in getting it recognized for entry to Europe and the US. 
• Having the vaccine become part of the WHO’s emergency use list will allow it to be used in the COVAX global vaccination program and allow it to be more easily recognized by countries for travel. The latter factor is important for a country like the Philippines, which has millions of overseas Filipino workers.

In case you missed it: We’ve lived under a pandemic for two years now, quarantine restrictions have changed the way we operate daily, and a virus a thousand times smaller than a dust mite has sickened nearly 4 million Filipinos and killed over 57,000. 

As the government seeks to transition to a “new normal,” Rappler reviews some of the major changes that have taken place due to COVID-19, as well as the lasting effects the virus may have in the months to come. More in this story: 

– Rappler.com