Our next storm system will approach southeastern Texas Monday afternoon. For us, Monday will feature increasing clouds and winds. A low-pressure center will begin to develop and deepen to our northwest, which will lead to these increasing winds. Southeast winds could be in the 15-25 mph range, gusting as high as 30-40 mph. Also, an upper-level trough will move into the region, increasing southwesterly flow aloft.
Most of the storms on Monday should remain across eastern Texas where a level 3 risk is present. Heading into Monday night and Tuesday, these storms will slowly make progress to the east. By Tuesday morning/early afternoon, storms will begin to work into Acadiana.
The atmosphere looks prime for severe weather Tuesday afternoon with winds getting stronger and turning with height. The temperature drop with height will be impressive, so this means storms will have a good thermodynamic environment to work with as well. All modes of severe weather will be possible with supercell storms capable of gaining rotation and having strong updrafts, which leads to a large hail and a tornado threat. These cells will be ones that form out ahead of the main line early Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, a squall-line will likely move through the area with the threat for damaging winds increasing, although tornadoes could be embedded within the line of storms as well. Acadiana is under a level 3 risk of severe storms, with a significant level 4 risk across northeastern portions of Acadiana and into southwestern Mississippi.
IMPORTANT NOTES....We rarely see level 4 risks for severe storms in a Day 3 outlook. This means the Storm Prediction Center could increase its threat level even further as the event gets closer. A level 5, HIGH risk, is unlikely, but certainly cannot be ruled out, somewhere across eastern Louisiana/Mississippi.
As it stands now, storms will be rolling through during the afternoon hours of Tuesday. Watching these events for a long time, it seems these systems get knocked down in severity across Acadiana during the afternoon hours as cooler Gulf waters put a lid on the severe weather ingredients. More study has to be done on this subject, but it does certainly seem more significant severe weather episodes/verification happen during overnight and morning hours, when cooler shelf waters seem to have a lower impact on these systems. We'll see if this phenomenon comes into play again this time.
WHAT YOU NEED TO DO...
Download the KLFY weather app. It alerts you if your area is under any type of warning. Knowledge is power and it's important to know if severe weather is threatening your area.
Do not panic. We've been through many of these events before and will go through many more in the future. Sometimes the severe weather verifies and sometimes it doesn't, but statistically chances of significant injury or death from severe weather are very low across Acadiana. This is not to minimize the risk, but this should always be put into perspective before causing unnecessary panic.
You are definitely at a higher risk if you live in unanchored mobile homes or homes surrounded by large trees, especially water oaks. If you fall into this category, it may be a good idea to stay with a friend or family member who has more sturdy or safer shelter.
Lastly, stick with KLFY through the day on Tuesday as we'll be giving you the latest updates.
