Dirty dozen: Will 12-time nominee ‘The Power of the Dog’ really just win a single Oscar?
A month ago, “The Power of the Dog” looked like it was powered to have a big Oscar night after nabbing a leading 12 nominations. At the time, many were forecasting at least four trophies — and above-the-line ones at that — for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay for Jane Campion, and Best Supporting Actor for Kodi Smit-McPhee. Some thought it could also pull off a below-the-line win or two, like in Best Original Score for Jonny Greenwood or Best Cinematography for Ari Wegner, who’d be the first female winner in the category. Now, “The Power of the Dog” looks strong in just one category, Best Director, as “CODA” has pocketed some big wins the past few weeks, including at Saturday’s Producers Guild of America Awards. But could a 12-time nominee really walk away with so few wins?
It’s actually not that uncommon for a 12-time nominee to convert less than half its bids into victories. Prior to “The Power of the Dog,” 16 movies have earned exactly 12 nominations and they won an average of five Oscars. All of them scored at least one Oscar, so that’s promising for the Netflix film (otherwise going 0-12 would set a new biggest loser record). But only six of these 16 won more than six Oscars, all of which were epics or acclaimed hits with showy crafts: 1959’s “Ben-Hur” (11), 1996’s “The English Patient” (nine), 1954’s “On the Waterfront” (eight), 1964’s “My Fair Lady” (eight), 1990’s “Dances with Wolves” (seven) and 1993’s “Schindler’s List” (seven). All six won Best Picture. 1942’s “Mrs. Miniver” won precisely six Oscars, including Best Picture.
The other nine won five or fewer statuettes: 2000’s “Gladiator” (five), 1943’s “The Song of Bernadette” (four), 1951’s “A Streetcar Named Desire” (four), 2010’s “The King’s Speech” (four), 1981’s “Reds” (three), 2015’s “The Revenant” (three), 2012’s “Lincoln” (two), 1948’s “Johnny Belinda” (one) and 1964’s “Beckett” (one). Only “Gladiator” and “The King’s Speech” took home Best Picture. If “The Power of the Dog” manages to prevail in the four categories it was initially projected to claim, it’ll mimic “The King’s Speech’s” haul of Best Picture, Best Director and writing and acting wins.
SEE Will all 10 Best Picture nominees win at least one Oscar?
At the moment, only Best Director feels secure for “The Power of the Dog.” Campion has dominated the season, including a victory at the Directors Guild of America Awards. That one win would match the film with “Johnny Belinda,” which scored Best Actress for Jane Wyman, and “Becket,” which won Best Adapted Screenplay (“Becket” and “My Fair Lady” each earned 12 bids that year and the latter just ran roughshod over the former). Smit-McPhee lost his frontrunner status to “CODA’s” Troy Kotsur, who’s snagged the Screen Actors Guild Award and the BAFTA. And all signs are pointing to a Best Adapted Screenplay win for “CODA” after it surprised at BAFTA, whose lineup matched the Oscars’. It also triumphed at the Writers Guild of America Awards on Sunday in the absence of “The Power of the Dog” and their fellow Oscar nominees “Drive My Car” and “The Lost Daughter,” which were ineligible.
Barring an upset in one of its crafts categories, all of which are predicted to go to “Dune,” that leaves Best Picture as “The Power of the Dog’s” possible second win, which sounds weird to say out loud, but it’s a weird year and those two categories were what it won at BAFTA. With the Oscars’ preferential ballot and “The Power of the Dog’s” well-rounded support (“CODA” has three bids and is the only Best Picture nominee without a directing or below-the-line nominations), it’s not out of the, um, picture despite its PGA loss. In the preferential era, PGA has mismatched with the Oscars three times, most recently two years ago when the guild anointed “1917” and the academy crowned “Parasite.” There is a world in which “The Power of the Dog” starts out the first round of balloting with a big enough lead of No. 1 votes and hangs on through subsequent rounds for the gold.
If the Western only makes out with these two victories, it’ll join “All Quiet on the Western Front” (1929/30) and “You Can’t Take It with You” (1938) as the three films to just win Best Picture and Best Director. Is that more likely to happen than a sole directing win? The last film to garner Best Director and nothing else was “The Graduate” (1967), a seven-time nominee that only prevailed for Mike Nichols. Not bad company to be in.
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