How ‘Morbius’ Will Test Sony’s Box Office Hot Streak

Since “Venom: Let There Be Carnage” hit theaters last fall, Sony Pictures has been on a white-hot streak at the box office punctuated by the record success of “Spider-Man: No Way Home.” Now it’s up to the studio’s long delayed Spidey villain spinoff “Morbius” to continue that streak.

“Morbius” stars Jared Leto as a brilliant but sick doctor who uses a strange ritual to cure himself of a rare blood disease. But the cure also gives him supernatural strength and powers… as well as a bloodthirsty vampire alter ego.

“Morbius” is one of the dozens of films that were initially set for release in 2020 before being repeatedly delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic. That means, like blockbusters such as “No Time to Die” and “F9,” those delays have likely led to increased marketing costs on top of the film’s reported $75 million budget.

That raises the bar to clear for profitability for “Morbius,” which is projected for an opening in the $40 million range similar to the $44 million start that Sony’s last blockbuster, “Uncharted,” earned in February. Sony is much more conservative with a $33 million studio projection, which would make it the lowest-ever opening for a Sony/Marvel film and on the same level as the ill-fated — but much more expensive — X-Men movie “Dark Phoenix” from 20th Century Fox in 2019.

But at that opening level, the comp for “Morbius” wouldn’t be “Dark Phoenix” but rather “Birds of Prey,” a Warner Bros./DC film that wasn’t a flop after its $33 million opening but didn’t live up to its DC pedigree with $201 million grossed worldwide against an $84.5 million budget. Sony will likely be aiming for a $350-$400 million global box office run similar to what “Uncharted” is putting up right now, but a performance similar to “Birds of Prey” may be more likely if the film cannot stand out against upcoming competition like “Sonic the Hedgehog 2” and “Ambulance” — both of which come out next weekend.

Not helping matters is the word-of-mouth on social media from early press screenings, which have been mostly negative. While some praise was reserved for Matt Smith for his performance as the film’s villain, tweets from early viewers criticized the film’s plot as “confusing” and its VFX and editing as “incoherent,” unfavorably comparing it to the “Venom” films for lacking their dark, campy fun.

“Morbius” doesn’t yet have a Rotten Tomatoes score, but if the reception from critics and preview night audiences is similarly poor, the drop-off could be steep as more films hit theaters over the course of April. But a misfire probably won’t stop the Spidey spinoffs from coming, as “Kraven the Hunter” and “Madame Web” are in active development at Sony along with a third “Venom” film.