April box office 2022 preview: ‘Morbius’ and ‘Fantastic Beasts 3’ are blockbusters to beat

As a semi-introduction for those who haven’t been reading my stuff on Gold Derby the past couple months, my name is Edward Douglas, and I’ve spent the past 20+ years writing about the box office for a variety of outlets, including my own weekly box office column, the Weekend Warrior. I’m bringing my many years of knowledge in this area to those at Gold Derby who take part in the weekly box office predictions contest. Read on for my April box office 2022 preview.

We’ve just passed the two-year mark on the COVID pandemic plus the Oscar season is officially over, so now seems like a good time as any for the box office to rebound to somewhere close to where it was before this whole mess started, or at least give it a try. In the past, April represented Spring and Easter with many schools taking off for Spring Break, but for many years it was also considered a dumping ground. Maybe that isn’t the case so much anymore.

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“Morbius” (Sony Pictures) – April 1

One of the last of the movies planned for a 2020 release prior to the pandemic finally sees the light of day … even if that turns out to be a movie about a vampire. And not just any vampire, but Dr. Michael Morbius, the Spider-Man frenemy that finally makes his debut at the movies. It couldn’t come at a better time with Jared Leto foraying into comic book movies, playing an anti-hero with connections to popular anti-heroes like “Venom,” and with Michael Keaton seemingly returning as his “Spider-Man: Homecoming” character. Despite the concerning delays, expect this one to kick off the month with a solid $50 to 60 million opening, possibly even higher.

“Sonic the Hedgehog 2” (Paramount) – April 8

After being delayed for many months to work on the look of the title character, “Sonic the Hedgehog” opened in February 2020 with $58 million. It probably would have made even more than $149 million domestic if not for COVID. A little over two years later, the beloved Sega video game character returns (voiced by Ben Schwartz), bringing along popular friends like Tails (voiced by Colleen O’Shaughnessey) and facing off against Jim Carrey’s Dr. Robotnik, along with Knuckles (voiced by Idris Elba). While “Sing 2” has been the predominant family movie in 2022, it’s definitely played out, which should give this sequel to open somewhere in the $45 to 50 million range, presumably replacing “Morbius” in the #1 slot this weekend.

“Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore” (Warner Bros) – April 15

It’s been four years since “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” although the title character of that movie, previously played by Johnny Depp, has now been replaced by Mads Mikkelsen. This third movie in the “Harry Potter” prequel series promises to give more of a central role to Jude Law’s younger version of Dumbledore, head of Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry. Of course, Oscar-winning actor Eddie Redmayne’s Newt Scamander is back, as is Dan Fogler, Katherine Waterston, Allison Sudol and Ezra Miller, so this adds a third April movie for slightly older kids that should be good for a $40 million opening, give or take.

“The Bad Guys” (Universal) – April 22

Later in the month, we get the second family film of April, an animated film from DreamWorks Animation that shows what happens when notoriously dangerous animals like Wolf, Snake, Tarantula, Shark and Piranha attempt to change their image. With characters voiced by Sam Rockwell, Marc Maron, Awkwafina, Craig Robinson and Anthony Ramos, the movie is looking to bring in $30 to 35 million after business for “Sonic” tails off and before the next Marvel movie in May.

“Ambulance” (Universal) – April 8

Director Michael Bay returns to theaters with a heist movie action-thriller starring Jake Gyllenhaal, the omnipresent Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (“Candyman” and “The Matrix Resurrections”) and Eiza González (“Baby Driver”). Bay used to be the king of the summer blockbuster, but this one seems more in the vein of his 2013 action-comedy “Pain & Gain,” which opened with $20.2 million and made less than $50 million domestic. Taking on “Sonic” and the 2nd week of “Morbius,” this one might open closer to $17 or 18 million.

“Father Stu” (Sony) – April 13

Just in time for Easter, Mark Wahlberg leads this inspirational story of Father Stuart Long, a good-for-nothing boxer who becomes a Catholic priest after an accident who went onto inspire others with his words. The movie also stars Mel Gibson – no stranger to faith-based movies – which could make this an interesting Easter counter-programming to “Fantastic Beasts.” I still don’t see this opening north of $10 to 12 mill.

“The Northman” (Focus Features) – April 22

“The Witch” and “The Lighthouse” filmmaker Robert Eggers continues his genre exploration with a Viking movie with an incredible ensemble cast that includes Alexander Skarsgård, Nicole Kidman, Ethan Hawke, Anya Taylor-Joy, Willem Dafoe and even Bjork! Eggers has made a fantastic-looking big screen epic saga that should be good for $10 million or more its opening weekend.

“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent” (Lionsgate) – April 22

Nicholas Cage finally plays the role he was born to play … Nicholas Cage … in what is likely to be one of the funniest and most irreverent comedies of the month. It’s going to have tough competition for younger audiences with Eggers’ film, but older males should be on board for this buddy comedy that teams Cage with Pedro Pascal from “Narcos.” Tiffany Haddish and Neil Patrick Harris co-star in this comedy that recently premiered at the SXSW Film Festival to rave reviews and should be good for an opening in the $10 million range, as well.

“Memory” (Briarcliff/Open Road) – April 29

Liam Neeson delivers his second movie of the year after “Blacklight,” teaming with director Martin Campbell (“Casino Royale”) as an assassin turned target in a remake of the Belgian thriller, “The Memory of a Killer.” It also stars Monica Belluci and Guy Pearce, but this literally is coming out the week before the Doctor Strange sequel and might end up with closer to $5 million opening before quickly exiting people’s … Well, you know.

“Everything Everywhere All At Once” (A24) – April 8

“Crazy Rich Asians'” Michelle Yeoh stars in the second movie from filmmaking duo Daniels (“Swiss Army Man”) as an older woman having difficulties in life, which include her rebellious daughter (Stephanie Hsu) and unhappy husband (played by no less than Ke Huy Quan aka Data from “The Goonies”). Those problems are only exacerbated when she discovers she’s able to tap into other universes and alternate versions of herself to take on skills she’ll need to face off an invasion of her own dimension. The Daniels’ bizarro sci-fi comedy will expand nationwide in April after a few weeks in limited release, building up word-of-mouth from its debut as Opening Night of this year’s SXSW Film Festival.

To wrap this initial column, we’re going to delve into a few of this month’s arthouse releases.

“You Won’t Be Alone” (Focus Features) – April 1

Goran Stolevski’s horror-fantasy set in 19th Century Macedonia involves a young girl kidnapped as a baby and transformed into a shape-shifting witch, with actors like Noomi Rapace, Alice Englert and others portraying the main character.

“Barbarians” (IFC Films) – April 1

“The Lost Daughter” producer Charles Dorfman’s horror-thriller stars Iwan Rheon (“Game of Throne”) and Oscar nominee Catalina Sandino Moreno as a couple, whose best friend, played by Tom Cullen, comes over for a birthday celebration along with his actress girlfriend (Inès Spiridonov), a celebratory night disrupted by unexpected visitors with a dark secret.

“Paris, 13th District” (IFC) – April 15

“Une Prophète” director Jacques Audiard returns with his new anthology drama based on the comics by Adrien Tomine, teaming with Céline Sciamma (“Portrait of a Lady on Fire”) on the screenplay that looks at the interactions between four diverse young people in Paris.

“The Duke” (Sony Pictures Classics) – April 22

Sadly, filmmaker Roger Michell (“Notting Hill“) died before the release of his last film, which stars Jim Broadbent as taxi driver Kempton Bunton, who in 1961 tried to steal Goya’s portrait of the Duke of Wellington from London’s National Gallery. Dame Helen Mirren co-stars.

“Hatching” (IFC) – April 29

From Finland comes another Sundance premiere, as Hanna Bergholm’s horror film is about a teen gymnast who finds an egg in her backyard, which ends up hatching into a horrific new playmate for the girl.