Political game of Russian Roulette in Pakistan: What its future portends

By Col Rajinder Singh (Retd)

Cloaked in the garb of “Neutrality”, Pakistan army has played its age-old game of causing “political instability” in Pakistan.

Sending a message of “Neutrality” to opposition parties , it allowed Imran Khan to play the game of “threat to national security” through a “forged” threat from the United States to topple the Imran Khan Government. In the process, the constitution of Pakistan was blown to pieces.

The so-called “ threat” letter was actually an assessment by Pakistan’s outgoing ambassador to the USA. It seems, in his conversation with a third or fourth grade Secretary , Donald Lewis, of US foreign office , the ambassador gathered the impression that US – Pakistan relations cannot improve , as long as Imran Khan was the head of the Government. Accordingly, Pakistan’s ambassador had sent a routine cabal to Pakistan’s foreign Minister, Shah Mohammed Qureshi, who further tempered it to suit the political purpose of the Imran Khan Government. This became a ground for “alleged Threat” to Pakistan’s stability.

This was used by the Deputy Speaker of National Assembly to dismiss the “No Confidence Motion” against the Imran Khan Government, moved by combined opposition, who had claimed a support of 197 members of the National Assembly against the simple majority of 172. Thus, the defeat of Imran Khan was certain . So, he preempted the opposition move by getting the motion rejected and then dissolved the National Assembly.

Point of issue is the so called cabal, alleging a “foreign Conspiracy”, nay “US plan” to topple Imran Khan. It is laughable . But the surprise is of Pakistan Army’s stoned silence, custodian of Pakistan’s security, on such an alleged attempt by a “foreign Power” to destabilise Pakistan. It allowed things to drift so as to create political chaos , when people of Pakistan would cry for the Pakistan Army to intervene.

Though the issue is in the supreme Court (SC) of Pakistan , yet nothing worthwhile is expected. There are claims by some Pakistani analysts that some of the members of the five judge bench of SC might be hand in gloves with the Imran Khan Government. Some say that the daughter of a senior most judge has been employed in a lucrative post on a very high salary by the Imran Khan Government . Therefore there might be another shock for the opposition.

All said and done, Pakistan army is cleverly using the courts and the politicians to create conditions favourable for its intervention. This is how it had got Nawaz Sharif, as Prime Minister removed in 2018 , on a flimsy charge of “ IKAMA” —- for not disclosing his salary , as employee of his son’s company in UAE. Similarly , Imran khan , its own protege , though proven incompetent and incapable , was getting too big gor his boots . Therefore opposition was encouraged to rise against Imran Khan, with the promise of “Neutrality”. Actually , it was a double game . Behind the curtains , it supported Imran on alleged security threats .

Pakistan army had played the similar game in 1971, when it widened the gulf between Zulfiqar Bhutto and Mujibar Rehman and thus broke up Pakistan. Ironically , the public in Pakistan still does not think that its army was the real culprit for the creation of Bangladesh . It would do anything to retain its hold on Pakistan’s corridor of power. A Pakistani political commentator had once said that Generals were not fools to get out of business by ensuring political stability in the country . It seems Pakistan Public was once again getting ready to play a political game of Russian Roulette by begging the army to intervene.

The situation in Pakistan is really volatile. It could explode if SC does not ensure the sanctity of its constitution. If SC favours Imran Khan Government, which is the apprehension of many Pakistani analysts, it will only prepare grounds for the intervention of Army. Rafia Zakaria , a columnist for The Dawn, had lamented in 2014, on the Early death of MA JINNAH, Quaid – E – Azam and founding father of Pakistan, in her blog , ” If Jinnah Had lived—–“

“——-Pakistan’s loss was the untimely early death of its leader, the man with the plan, without which a country already born had to face questions it did not yet know how to answer. Islam or democracy, security or welfare, education or defense, South Asian or Middle Eastern, too many conundrums, all of them too hard, too confusing even at the ripe age of sixty three. The death of one man should not mean so much, but perhaps the death of some men, leading men, doom the futures of too many more.”

Mark her words on the Oscillating pendulum of Pakistan between:-

– USA and China
– Civilian rule and military Rule
– Islam or Democracy;
– Security or Welfare;
– Education or Defence;
– South Asia and Middle East.

What she did not say but did sound indirectly: Had Jinnah been alive, Pakistan’ military would not have taken her on the path of catastrophe that it faces today in the form of TTP. Despite the looming danger, its military is still reluctant to take on fundamentalism, which in reality led to the separation of Bangladesh.

Today, KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA / Balochistan are on the boil—- why blame Afghanistan or Iran for what happens there? Pak Military’s Strategic Asset is out to devour its creator. This is the key issue. The survivability of Pakistan is subject to Pak army’s reduced role in governance of Pakistan. It cannot be a sole custodian of its foreign and defence policy. The unshackled army would be the real cause of Pakistan’s disintegration as was in the case of East Pakistan. Then, who takes advantage of volatile situations is immaterial.

It should learn from the Indian army to be subordinate to civil leadership. To do so, it has to seek divorce from politics and leave the job of governance to politicians, however corrupt and ineffective they are. Will it do so, is a trillion dollar question?

(The author is a renowned author and a defence analyst. His bestselling books are on Kashmir- A Different Perspective and The ULFA Insurgency besides being a contribution on two other books. Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited).