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2022

What's next for the US housing bubble? Industry experts break down the bull and bear cases for home prices in the months ahead.

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  • Concerns about a housing market crash are growing as the Fed begins hiking interest rates.
  • Over the last several weeks, we've profiled experts views on the direction of the market.
  • Below we've compiled four pieces highlighting both bearish and bullish views on the market.

With mortgage rates rising as the Federal Reserve begins to hike the federal funds rate, investors and prospective homebuyers are wondering: is the housing market due for a downturn?

Worries about the fate of the market are especially pertinent given the tear that home prices have been on since the start of the pandemic. Median home prices have risen as much as 27% since spring 2020, according to data from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

But prices fell slightly for the first time since then in the fourth quarter of 2021, and could continue to do so. To explore more on what direction the market could take in the months ahead, Insider has profiled views from a handful of experts. The articles are shared below.

A chief economist who called the 2008 housing crisis warns that the US housing market is in the 'early stages of a substantial downshift' as demand subsides — and says surging home prices and rents are due to cool off in a big way

In this piece, Ian Shepherdson, the founder and chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, breaks down why he thinks the growth of home prices and activity in the market is due for a big pullback. 

"The housing market is in the early stages of a substantial downshift in activity, which will trigger a steep decline in the rate of increase of home prices, starting perhaps as soon as the spring," Shepherdson said in a March report.

Are we on the verge of a housing-bubble bust? An economist advises buyers to sit out the current 'irrational' market and lists the 11 most overvalued cities in the US.

The Bellagio Hotel's nightly water fountain show is seen amongst the lights of other casinos on the Las Vegas strip.

Ken Johnson, an economist at Florida Atlantic University, said in March that current market dynamics are "irrational," and recommended waiting to buy homes. 

While he said the entire US market is overvalued, some markets are frothier than others. This piece shares the top 11 most overvalued cities in the country based on Johnson's model.

Out-of-town homebuyers are driving up real-estate prices in these 10 overvalued cities, and it's fueling housing-bubble fears

Sticking with a more granular view of the US housing market, real-estate brokerage Redfin identified in a February report 10 cities where housing prices are being driven up by outside investors. 

They broke down some of the factors driving the surges, like favorable tax laws, budget disparities between buyers given varying local living costs, and people fleeing more expensive cities during the pandemic.

Heightened appetite for flipping could be a sign of a bubble in the market, some say.

Is the housing market setting up for a crash? 2 experts — including one who called the 2008 bubble burst — share the warning signs that a real-estate downfall is coming.

Ivy Zelman and Desmond Lachman are both relatively bearish on the US housing market, but for different reasons.

Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, former deputy director for the International Monetary Fund, and former strategist at Salomon Smith Barney, said in an interview with Insider that rising mortgage rates are the driving factor behind why home prices will fall.

Meanwhile, Zelman, a former Credit Suisse analyst and the founder of research firm Zelman & Associates, is bearish due to issues stemming from potential supply increases. 

Are home prices going to crash? A real-estate expert who's written multiple books on investing strategy breaks down why prices could grow 'faster than we can get a handle on'

David Greene, the host of the BiggerPockets podcast and the owner of a mortgage company, is extremely bullish on the housing market in the near-term. 

"Prices are going to continue to grow. I think they're gonna grow faster than we can get a handle on them," he told Insider in March. "I think this spring is going to be one of the busiest and hardest home buying seasons that we've seen in my lifetime."

For this piece, we asked Greene to address several bearish talking points and why he disagrees with them. 

Read the original article on Business Insider



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