‘Always running scared:’ Marcos, Duterte return to Calabarzon after Luzon numbers drop
LAGUNA, Philippines – Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. still leads in pre-election surveys by a big margin, but the latest Pulse Asia polls showed his numbers dropping in Balance Luzon, and he responded to that by returning to Batangas and Laguna of the vote-rich region Calabarzon or Southern Tagalog.
Vice President Leni Robredo’s numbers rose 14 points in Balance Luzon in the same survey. Balance Luzon refers to areas in Luzon outside Metro Manila.
What makes Calabarzon critical is that Marcos dropped 14 points in this region, while Robredo jumped 28 points, making the two statistically tied at 38-37. More about Calabarzon: it has 9.19 million voters, the biggest voting population out of all the regions in the country.
Overall in the March Pulse survey, Marcos still leads Robredo 56-24.
Marcos held a rally with vice presidential bet Sara Duterte in Lipa-Malvar in Batangas on Wednesday, April 20, his fourth return to this Southern Tagalog province where there are 1.8 million votes up for grabs.
On the other hand, Uniteam’s rally in Biñan, Laguna on Thursday, April 21 was Marcos’ third and Duterte’s fourth trip there.
In the March Pulse Asia survey, Duterte still leads 50-29 against closest rival Senate President Vicente “Tito” Sotto III. But in Balance Luzon, she and Sotto are statistically tied 36-37.
Calabarzon, Duterte said, is among areas she thinks she can still get votes, including Central Luzon, Bicol and Western Visayas. But the Davao City mayor said she can’t speak for Marcos if they have the same reasons for returning to these Southern Tagalog provinces.
“Well, I do not know, magkaiba po ‘yung campaign teams ng Bongbong Marcos at Sara Duterte (Bongbong Marcos and Sara Duterte have different campaign teams),” said Duterte on the sidelines of a solo event in San Pedro, Laguna Thursday.
Marcos, as usual, did not grant an interview.
As for Duterte, she said “we are always running scared.”
“Wala po kaming confidence in winning ngayon, we are always running scared even if we are 18 days away from election day,” said Duterte.
The tandem already sealed the support of the governors of four provinces: Jonvic Remulla of Cavite, Hermilando Mandanas of Batangas, Danilo Suarez of Quezon, and Ramil Hernandez of Laguna.
Laguna and Batangas
On Thursday, Laguna Governor Hernandez said: “Kami po, buong pamunuan ng PDP-Laban, kasama po ng ibang partido dito ay nagkakaisa, para po sa nag-iisang layunin. Bilang Pangulo ng PDP-Laban Laguna, ang amin pong presidente at vice president ay BBM-Sara.”
(All of us in PDP-Laban, and other parties here, are united in one goal. As president of PDP-Laban Laguna, our president and vice president are BBM-Sara.)
That’s the closest he’s come to declaring support for Marcos, as beforehand he was just clear about endorsing Duterte. There was no traditional raising of hands at the end of the rally.
Laguna is the 4th most vote rich province with 2 million voters, and which Marcos won over Robredo by a margin of more than 50,000 votes in the 2016 vice presidential race.
Batangas, 7th most vote rich province with 1.8 million, was won by Robredo in 2016. The Vice President beat Marcos in Batangas by a margin of more than 250,000 votes – a big win if you look at Robredo’s final margin over Marcos, which was just 263,473 votes.
But unlike Marcos’ Cavite backer, Governor Remulla, Batangas Governor Mandanas could not pledge how he can help reverse Marcos’ fate in his province and by how much. Instead, Mandanas echoed the tandem’s song of unity.
“Ang pinag-uusapan dito ay hindi boto, ang pinag-uusapan dito ay pumili ng tunay na maglilingkod sa bayan, maka-Diyos, maka-tao, maka-bayan at nagkakaisa, at ito’y ipakikita sa eleksyong ito sa dami ng boto,” said Mandanas on the sidelines of the smaller events by Sara Duterte in Batangas City on Wednesday.
(What we’re talking about here are not votes, we’re talking about choosing the real public servants, those who are for God, for the people, for the country, and for unity, and that’s what we will show in these elections through our votes.)
In 2016, although the presidential race was tight in Batangas, President Rodrigo Duterte won the province with a margin of just over 2,000 votes against his closest competitor there, Senator Grace Poe. This is why each time Sara Duterte is in Batangas, she mentions that her father and their family have a debt of gratitude to Batangueños.
On stage in Lipa-Malvar, Duterte said: “Damang dama ko ‘yung pagmamahal niyo sa amin dito sa Batangas. Naiiyak po ako. Pero ayokong umiyak kasi baka ganun yung mukha ko kapag umiyak, magiging meme ninyo ako.” (I really feel your love for us here in Batangas. I am near tears, but I don’t want to cry because my face when crying might be turned into a meme.)
When the crowd chanted “panalo ka na (you’ve won),” Duterte said she was too stunned to respond. “Na-mental block ako! (I have a mental block)” the presidential daughter said.
Marcos had a more confident response to the chant.
“Kaunti na lang, basta walang iwanan ito, hanggang sa dulo. Walang iwanan, at walang tulugan. Sa May 9 papadalhan ko kayo ng toneladang 3-in-1, alam naman nating maraming nangyayari kapag gabi,” said the son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, whose 20-year rule of the Philippines was marked by rampant corruption, extreme poverty, massive debt, and gross human rights violations, although they have since succeeded in rehabilitating their image.
(We’re very near, just don’t let go and stay with us until the end. Stay with us, and stay awake. On May 9 I will send you tons of 3-in-1 coffee, because we know so many things happen overnight.)
Marcos was referring to Robredo overtaking him overnight in 2016 to win the vice presidency. Marcos’ claims of election fraud has been junked unanimously, 15-0, by the Supreme Court.
Meanwhile, the most elusive endorsement for Marcos, that of President Duterte’s, is still to come.
PDP-Laban secretary-general Melvin Matibag was in Laguna Thursday mainly to support his wife, who’s running for as congressional seat in Laguna. Matibag confirmed that Marcos did meet President Duterte in person before PDP-Laban endorsed him.
“We have to realize the President is wearing two hats, the president of the nation and the chairman of PDP-Laban, so there’s balancing of interests, but we see he’s very supportive of his party,” said Matibag.
‘Work harder, strong finish’
How relevant is Calabarzon? A statistical tie in this region is an “encouraging sign” for Robredo, wrote Joey Salgado, spokesperson for former vice president Jejomar Binay, speaking from their experience of pulling off a come-from-behind victory to defeat the frontrunner Mar Roxas in 2010.
However there’s a reality check, said Salgado. Roxas was too confident in 2010, while Marcos Jr. “has become more aggressive on the ground, willing to match or outmatch the ‘Pink Wave’.”
Indeed, Ilocos Sur kingpin Luis “Chavit” Singson, a fixture of the Marcos campaign, said their candidate is not complacent. His barnstorming of Luzon, making several returns to provinces where he’s already perceived as strong, is a strategy of consolidation, said a campaign source.
After all, Luzon, including Metro Manila, has 36.6 million voters, or more than half of the total 65.7 million registered Filipino voters for 2022.
“Work harder and strong finish,” was the short answer of House Majority Leader Martin Romualdez when asked what their campaign strategy would be for the last 18 days. Romualdez, Marcos’ cousin, is president of Lakas-CMD which is carrying Duterte’s vice presidential bid.
Even Mimaropa
Marcos squeezed into his Wednesday schedule Oriental and Occidental Mindoro before he met up with Duterte in Batangas, a travel that is only possible by air.
Mimaropa as a region only has 1.99 million voters for the five provinces combined, but Marcos needs to sustain his good numbers here because Robredo won in all provinces there in 2016. The March Pulse Asia survey showed a drop for Marcos in Mimaropa but he still leads the region, 51-27, against Robredo.
Marcos has on his side the governors of the two Mindoros – Eduardo Gadiano of Occidental and Humerlito Dolor of Oriental – as well as Jose Alvarez of Palawan.
The likely ally would have been Marinduque Governor Presbitero Velasco, father of House Speaker Lord Allan Velasco who’s close to Sara Duterte. The elder Velasco, running under PDP-Laban that has already endorsed Marcos, wields influence as the president of the League of Governos as well as a former justice of the Supreme Court.
But when Robredo was there last week, Justice Velasco was all smiles with her, putting a crown on the Vice President’s head. – Rappler.com